那提西-法国-宏观经济-法国：应该启动双重良性循环

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1、FlashEconomicsFrance:Atwofoldvirtuouscycleshouldbeinitiated29January2018-94France'sstructuralsituationwouldimproveifatwofoldvirtuouscyclecouldbeinitiated:Animprovementintheefficiencyoftheeducationsystem,andinyouthskills,whichcouldgraduallybringdownthestructuralunemploymentrate,theabnormallyhi

2、ghlevelofwhichisoneofFrance'smajorstructuralproblems;Afurtherriseintheemploymentrateofthe55-64agegroup(especiallythe60-64agegroup),whichcouldincreasethepotentialGDPlevelandreducegovernmentspendingonpensions,henceoverallgovernmentspendingandthetaxburden,thelevelofwhichisanotherofFrance'smajors

3、tructuralproblems.Thesecondvirtuouscycleseemstobegettingunderwaynow,butnotthefirst.PatrickArtusTel.(331)58551500patrick.artus@natixis.com@PatrickArtuswww.research.natixis.comDistributionofthisreportintheUnitedStates.Seeimportantdisclosuresattheendofthisreport..FlashEconomicsFrance'stwomajorstr

4、ucturalproblems1-ThefirstproblemistheveryhighlevelofFrance'sstructuralunemploymentrate.Atthecurrentveryhighleveloftheunemploymentrate(Chart1),clearsignsofrecruitmentdifficultiesareappearinginFrance(Chart2),whichshowsthattheunemploymentrateisprobablyclosetothestructuralunemploymentrate.Chart1Ch

5、art2France:Unemploymentrate(as%)France:Companiesexperiencingrecruitmentdifficultiesbysector(as%)10.510.5100100Industry10.010.0Construction80Services809.59.59.09.060608.58.58.08.040407.57.520207.07.0Sources:Datastream,INSEE,NatixisSources:Datastream,INSEE,Natixis6.56.500020304050607080910111213

6、14151617180203040506070809101112131415161718Thissuggeststhatgrowthindemandandcyclicalupturnsallowmassunemploymenttopersist,andthatthepotentialGDPlevelhasbeenweakened.2-Thesecondproblemistheveryhighlevelofthetaxburden(Chart3A),especiallycorporatesocialcontributions(Chart3B)inFrance,whichreduces

7、labourdemandandincreasesstructuralunemployment,especiallyforthelow-skilled(Table1).Chart3AChart3BTaxburden(as%ofnominalGDP)Companies’socialcontributions(as%ofnominalGDP)46France4612France12Eurozoneexcl.FranceEurozoneexcl.France111144441