汇丰银行-存储器行业-memory sector：broader server impact on dram asp and earnings-20170628-hsbc

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1、28June2017MemorysectorEQUITIESSEMICONDUCTORBroaderserverimpactonDRAMASPandearningsKoreaWenowexpectDRAMpricestoincreaseuntilend-4Q17eRickySeo*2Q17preview:anticipatingbetterresultsthankstothepositiveSemiconductor/OLEDAnalystTheHongkongandShanghaiBanki

2、ngCorporationcontributionofserverDRAM(whichishigherpriceandmargin)Limited,SeoulSecuritiesBranchrickyjuilseo@kr.hsbc.com+82237068777ReiterateourBuyonSamsungwithnewTPofKRW2.8mKennethShim*(fromKRW2.6m)andHynixwithKRW86kTP(fromKRW75k)ResearchAssociate,TechTh

3、eHongkongandShanghaiBankingCorporationLimited,SeoulSecuritiesBranchRobustserverdemandshouldleadtoacontinuationinDRAMpriceincreases.Wekennyshim@kr.hsbc.com+82237068779reiterateourpositiveviewonthememorysectoraswenowexpectDRAMpricestocontinuetoriseuntilyear

4、-enddueto:1)robustserverdemandfromdatacentres;2)*Employedbyanon-USaffiliateofHSBCSecurities(USA)Inc,andisstillconservativecapeximplementation,and3)slower1xnmmigrationtolimitoutputnotregistered/qualifiedpursuanttoFINRAregulationsgrowth.Firmserverdemand,whi

5、chismainlycomingfromexpansionofcloudserviceforartificialintelligence(AI)applications,isleadingDRAMmakerstoallocatemorecapacitytoserverfrommobileandPC,causingacontinuationinsupplyshortage.Weestimateserverdemandwilloutgrowthemarketwith46%yoybitdemandgrowth(

6、versus22%yoyindustry),accountingfor38%oftotalDRAMdemandby2018efrom26%in2016.Givenhighermarginprofileofserver,thereislessreasontosellPCandmobileDRAMatadiscountaslongasthereisstrongserverdemand,soserverisaleadingindicatorforoverallDRAMpricegoingforward.Also

7、,therearelessBOMcostssinceservercustomersaremainlyhighermarginBtoBcustomers.2Qpreview:betterduetogreaterserverimpactonearnings.AtSamsungandHynix,weexpect2QOPtobe5%/6%betterthanourpriorestimateatKRW13.5tn/KRW3.1tn,respectively,becauseofthepositiveimpactste

8、mmingfromtherisingcontributionofserverDRAM.AsthepricepremiumofserverrelativetomobileandPCDRAMhasexpanded,itsimpactonDRAMASPshouldbegreaterthanwepreviouslyexpected.Also,asservermarginisthehighestamongDRAMs,itsincreas