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1、SteelPriceTrackerDeutscheBankMarketsResearchEuropeIndustryDateAustria20December2017FranceSteelPriceTrackerSteelPeriodicalSteelChineseexportpricesup,costinflationcontinuesBastianSynagowitzWillsteelpricesfallormaintaintheirstrength?ResearchAnalystSteelequitiescontinuetobevol
2、atile,drivenbymacrowoesandcommoditypricemovements.Althoughcurrentspotconditionsremainstrong,westillexpectcost+41-44-227-3377supporttofade,andthus,Europeanpricestofall(currentspotconditionswouldToppicksimplyfurthersignificantearningsupgradesacrossthespace). Ourtoppicksare:A
3、rcelorMittal(MT.AS),EUR26.68Buy1)ArcelorMittal,whichlooksattractivetousbasedonstrongcashflow(7-12%Voestalpine(VOES.VI),EUR49.63BuyFCFyield),valuationandadditionalupsideoptionality;and2)Voestalpine,whichSource:DeutscheBankwebelievehasmoreroomforupgrades,generatesstrongunder
4、lyingCF(9-10%FCFyield)andhasalessvolatilebusinessmodel.HRC:S.EuropeanpricesupE3–butpricehikeisimminentLastweek,S.EuropeanpriceswereupE3toE509(upUSD3toUSD601)andN.Figure1:HRCpricesEuropeanpriceswereupE1toE536(stableinUSDtermsatUSD632).PriceshaveUSD/t1,050NorthernEuropeUSAC
5、hinaexportstoEuropefallenE6inthepastthreemonths.Yet,severalEuropeanplayershavestartedto1,000950900pushforaE20/tpricehike.850800750USHRCpricesupUSD8;ChineseexportpricesupUSD13700650USHRCpriceswereupUSD8lastweek.ThepricegapwithEuroperoseto600550500USD72/t,whilethepricediffer
6、entialwithChinadecreasedtoUSD137/t.Chinese450400HRCpriceswereupUSD13toUSD566.ThespreadbetweenChineseandS.350300250EuropeanpricesfelltoUSD35,lessthanthetwo-yearaveragespreadofUSD58,200DecAprAugDecAprAugDecAprAugDecAprAugDecwithChinesepricesdownE14(downUSD9)inthelastthreemo
7、nths.13141414151515161616171717Source:TheSteelIndexPlate:S.EuropeanpricesdownE3S.EuropeanpricesweredownE3toE513(downUSD4toUSD605).PricesfellFigure2:RawmaterialpricesE24inthepastmonth.N.EuropeanpriceswereupbyE3toE577(upUSD2toUSD/tIronoreFines62%Fe,CFRTianjin,ChinaShreddeds
8、crap,US(RHS)USD/t550USD680).210500190170450Ironore:Fines62%FepricesupUSD4/dmt;cokingcoal:pricesu
