德银-欧洲-钢材市场-螺纹钢，板材和热镀锌价格随着商品持续走强而进一步上涨

《德银-欧洲-钢材市场-螺纹钢，板材和热镀锌价格随着商品持续走强而进一步上涨》由会员上传分享，免费在线阅读，更多相关内容在行业资料-天天文库。

1、SteelPriceTrackerDeutscheBankMarketsResearchEuropeIndustryDateFrance28February2018SteelPriceTrackerSteelSteelPeriodicalUSrebar,plateandHDGpricesrisefurtherascommoditystrengthlastsBastianSynagowitzStrongsteelpricemomentumwithscopeforfurthermarginexpansionResearchAnalystEquitiesremainpriced

2、foramargincontraction(vs.spot).However,asdiscussedinourEuropeanSteelOutlook2018,weseeseveralreasons(highglobalprice+41-44-227-3377levels,protectionism,demandandconsolidation)whymarginsmaycontinueToppickstostickorevenexpandfurther(whichwouldimplyfurthersignificantearningsArcelorMittal(MT.AS

3、),EUR28.55Buyupgradesacrossthespace). Postthepublicationofthedetailsonsection232Source:DeutscheBank(whichwouldbepositiveforallUSexposedassets/players)thekeyquestionsare1)HowwilltheUSGovernmentdecide(decisionisdueby11thApril)and2)howmayotherregimesreacttorespondtoboththeUSandanypossiblered

4、irectionofmaterialtrade-flow.OurtoppickisArcelorMittal,whichlooksattractivetousbasedonstrongcashflow(9-11%FCFyield),valuationandadditionalupsideoptionality.Figure1:HRCpricesUSD/t1,050NorthernEuropeUSAChinaexportstoEuropeHRC:N.EuropeanpricesupE31,000950Lastweek,N.EuropeanpriceswereupbyE3toE5

5、71(stableinUSDtermsat900850USD704)andS.EuropeanpriceswerealsoupbyE2toE552(downinUSDterms800750700byUSD1USD681).PriceshaverisenE49inthepastthreemonths.650600550500450USHRCpricesupUSD3;ChineseexportpricesupUSD3400350USHRCpriceswereupUSD3lastweek.ThepricedifferentialwithChina300250remainedsta

6、bleatUSD240/t.ChineseHRCpriceswereupbyUSD3toUSD588.200FebMayAugNovFebMayAugNovFebMayAugNovFebMayAugNovFeb1414141415151515161616161717171718ThespreadbetweenChineseandS.EuropeanpricesfelltoUSD93,abovetheSource:TheSteelIndextwo-yearaveragespreadofUSD62,withChinesepricesupE14(upUSD41)inthelas

7、tthreemonths.Figure2:RawmaterialpricesUSD/tIronoreFines62%Fe,CFRTianjin,ChinaShreddedscrap,US(RHS)USD/tPlate:N.EuropeanpricesupE2;USpricesupUSD27550210N.EuropeanpriceswereupE2toE603(downinUSDtermsbyUSD1toUSD743).500190170450PricesroseE4inthepastmonth.S.Europeanprice