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1、SteelPriceTrackerDeutscheBankMarketsResearchEuropeIndustryDateFrance19September2017GermanySteelPriceTrackerSteelPeriodicalSteelIronorepricesturn,USplatepricesdropBastianSynagowitzWillsteelpricesstillfallorkeeptheirstrength?ResearchAnalystSteelequitiescontinueto
2、bevolatile,drivenbymacrowoesandcommoditypricemovements.Althoughcurrentspotconditionsremainstrong,westillforecast+41-44-227-3377costsupporttofade,andthus,Europeanpricestofall(currentspotconditionsToppickswouldimplysignificantfurtherearningsupgradesacrossthespace)
3、. OurtopThyssenKrupp(TKAG.DE),EUR25.66Buypicksare:1)ArcelorMittal,whichlooksattractivetous,basedonstrongcashArcelorMittal(MT.AS),EUR22.72Buyflow(7-12%FCFyield),valuationandadditionalupsideoptionality,and2)Source:DeutscheBankThyssenKrupp,onapossiblynearingeventca
4、talyst(Tatamerger),recoveringearnings,andimprovingCFandsentiment.HRC:NorthernEuropeanpricesupE5Lastweek,NorthernEuropeanpriceswereupE5toE541(upUSD6toUSD647);Figure1:HRCpricesSouthernEuropeanpriceswerestableatE521(alsostableinUSDtermsatUSD/t1,050NorthernEuropeUS
5、AChinaexportstoEuropeUSD622).PriceshaverisenE57inthepastthreemonths.1,000950900850800USHRCpricesupUSD3;Chineseexportpriceswerestable750700USHRCpriceswereupUSD3lastweek.ThepricegapwithEuropehasfallen650600toUSD45/t,whilethepricedifferentialwithChinarosetoUSD142/t
6、.Chinese550500450HRCpriceswerestableatUSD550.ThespreadbetweenChineseandSouthern400350EuropeanpriceswasalsostableatUSD72,morethanthetwo-yearaverage300250200spreadofUSD63,withChinesepricesupE57(+USD100)inthepastthreeSepJanMaySepJanMaySepJanMaySepJanMaySep13141414
7、151515161616171717months.Source:TheSteelIndexPlate:SouthernEuropeanpricesupE2;USpricesdownUSD11SouthernEuropeanpricesroseE2toE545(upUSD2toUSD651).PricesincreasedFigure2:RawmaterialpricesE7inthepastmonth.NorthernEuropeanpriceswerestableatE597(stableinUSDUSD/tIro
8、noreFines62%Fe,CFRTianjin,ChinaShreddedscrap,US(RHS)USD/t550termsatUSD713).USpricesdecreasedUSD11toUSD750(downE9toE627).210500190170450Ironore:Fines62%FepricesdownUSD4/dmt;c
