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1、SteelPriceTrackerDeutscheBankMarketsResearchEuropeIndustryDateAustria25October2017FranceSteelPriceTrackerSteelPeriodicalSteelScrappricesweak+morepricedeclinesinsteelBastianSynagowitzWillsteelpricesfallorkeeptheirstrength?ResearchAnalystSteelequitiescontinuetobevolatile,drivenby
2、macrowoesandcommoditypricemovements.Althoughcurrentspotconditionsremainstrong,westillforecast+41-44-227-3377costsupporttofade,andthus,Europeanpricestofall(currentspotconditionsToppickswouldimplyfurthersignificantearningsupgradesacrossthespace). OurtoppicksArcelorMittal(MT.AS),EU
3、R25.68Buyare:1)ArcelorMittal,whichlooksattractivetousbasedon:strongcashflowVoestalpine(VOES.VI),EUR46.23Buy(7-12%FCFyield),valuationandadditionalupsideoptionality;and2)Voestalpine,Source:DeutscheBankwhichwebelievehasmoreroomforupgrades,generatesstrongunderlyingCF(9-10%FCFyield)a
4、ndhasalessvolatilebusinessmodel.HRC:N.EuropeanpricesdownE1Lastweek,N.EuropeanpricesweredownE1toE542(downUSD2toUSD639)Figure1:HRCpricesandS.EuropeanpriceswerestableatE516(downUSD1toUSD609).PriceshaveUSD/t1,050NorthernEuropeUSAChinaexportstoEuroperisenE51inthepastthreemonths.1,00
5、0950900850800USHRCpricesdownUSD11;ChineseexportpricesupUSD3750700USHRCpricesweredownUSD11lastweek.However,severalUSplayers650600preparedthemarketforaUSD40/tpricehike.ThepricegapwithEuropefell550500450toUSD10/t,whilethepricedifferentialwithChinaalsodecreased,toUSD96/t.400350Chine
6、seHRCpricesincreasedbyUSD3toUSD554.ThespreadbetweenChinese300250200andS.EuropeanpricesdecreasedtoUSD55,lessthanthetwo-yearaverageOctJanAprJulOctJanAprJulOctJanAprJulOctJanAprJulOct1314141414151515151616161617171717spreadofUSD58,withChinesepricesupE37(+USD49)inthepastthreemonths
7、.Source:TheSteelIndexPlate:S.EuropeanpricesdownE4;USpriceswerestableS.EuropeanpricesfellE4toE561(downUSD5toUSD662).PricesroseE5intheFigure2:Rawmaterialpricespastmonth.N.EuropeanpricesfellbyE1toE589(downUSD1toUSD694).USUSD/tIronoreFines62%Fe,CFRTianjin,ChinaShreddedscrap,US(RHS)
8、USD/t550priceswerestableatUSD759(alsostableineuroterms
