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1、SteelPriceTrackerDeutscheBankMarketsResearchEuropeIndustryDateAustria21November2017FranceSteelPriceTrackerSteelPeriodicalSteelHRClargelyunchanged,scrapandcoalpricesstrengthenBastianSynagowitzWillsteelpricesfallorkeeptheirstrength?ResearchAnalystSteelequitiesc
2、ontinuetobevolatile,drivenbymacrowoesandcommoditypricemovements.Althoughcurrentspotconditionsremainstrong,westillforecast+41-44-227-3377costsupporttofadeand,thus,Europeanpricestofall(currentspotconditionsToppickswouldimplyfurthersignificantearningsupgradesacro
3、ssthespace). OurtopArcelorMittal(MT.AS),EUR23.96Buypicksare:1)ArcelorMittal,whichlooksattractivetousbasedonstrongcashflowVoestalpine(VOES.VI),EUR47.50Buy(7-12%FCFyield),valuationandadditionalupsideoptionality;and2)Voestalpine,Source:DeutscheBankwhichwebelieveh
4、asmoreroomforupgrades,generatesstrongunderlyingCF(9-10%FCFyield)andhasalessvolatilebusinessmodel.HRC:N.EuropeanpricesdownE3Lastweek,N.EuropeanpricesweredownbyE3toE537(upUSD5toUSD632)Figure1:HRCpricesandS.EuropeanpricesweredownbyE3toE501(upUSD4toUSD590).Prices
5、USD/t1,050NorthernEuropeUSAChinaexportstoEuropehaverisenE16inthepastthreemonths.1,000950900850800USHRCpricesdownUSD2;ChineseexportpricesupUSD1750700USHRCpricesweredownUSD2lastweek.SeveralUSplayerspreparedthe650600marketforaUSD40/tpricehike.ThepricegapwithEuro
6、pefelltoUSD43/t,while550500450thepricedifferentialwithChinadecreasedtoUSD129/t.ChineseHRCprices400350increasedbyUSD1toUSD545.ThespreadbetweenChineseandS.European300250200pricesincreasedtoUSD44,lessthanthetwo-yearaveragespreadofUSD58,withNovMarJulNovMarJulNovMa
7、rJulNovMarJulNov13141414151515161616171717ChinesepricesdownE6(downUSD7)inthepastthreemonths.Source:TheSteelIndexPlate:EuropeanpriceswerestableS.EuropeanpriceswerestableatE537(upinUSDtermsbyUSD8toUSD632).Figure2:RawmaterialpricesPricesfellE24inthepastmonth.N.E
8、uropeanpriceswerealsostableatE574USD/tIronoreFines62%Fe,CFRTianjin,ChinaShreddedscrap,US(RHS)USD/t550(upUSD9toUSD675).USpriceswerealsostableatUSD759(alsostableineuro210500190termsatE648).
