德银-欧洲-钢材市场-钢材价格追 踪：价格继续上涨，南部与北欧价格的差距缩小

《德银-欧洲-钢材市场-钢材价格追 踪：价格继续上涨，南部与北欧价格的差距缩小》由会员上传分享，免费在线阅读，更多相关内容在行业资料-天天文库。

1、SteelPriceTrackerDeutscheBankMarketsResearchEuropeIndustryDateAustria31January2018FranceSteelPriceTrackerSteelPeriodicalSteelSteelpricescontinuetorise-SouthclosesgaptoNorthernEuropeanpricesBastianSynagowitzStrongsteelpricemomentumwithscopeforfurthermarginexpansionResearchAnalystEqui

2、tiesremainpricedforamargincontraction(vs.spot).However,asdiscussedinourEuropeanSteelOutlook2018,weseeseveralreasons(highglobalprice+41-44-227-3377levels,protectionism,demandandconsolidation)whymarginsmaycontinueToppickstostickorevenexpandfurther(whichwouldimplyfurthersignificantearni

3、ngsArcelorMittal(MT.AS),EUR30.17Buyupgradesacrossthespace). Ourtoppicksare:1)ArcelorMittal,whichlooksVoestalpine(VOES.VI),EUR53.10Buyattractivetousbasedonstrongcashflow(9-11%FCFyield),valuationandSource:DeutscheBankadditionalupsideoptionality;and2)Voestalpine,whichwebelievehasmoreroo

4、mforupgrades,generatesstrongunderlyingCF(8-9%FCFyield)andhasalessvolatilebusinessmodel.HRC:S.EuropeanpricesupE13Lastweek,S.EuropeanpriceswereupbyE13toE540(upUSD21toUSD667)Figure1:HRCpricesandN.EuropeanpriceswerealsoupbyE2toE550(upbyUSD7toUSD678).USD/t1,050NorthernEuropeUSAChinaexpor

5、tstoEuropePriceshaverisenE10inthepastthreemonthsandseveralEuropeanplayersstill1,000950900trytopushforfurtherpricerises.850800750USHRCpricesupUSD4;ChineseexportpricesupUSD7700650USHRCpriceswereupUSD4lastweekandplyerspushformoreincreases.The600550500pricedifferentialwithChinadecreasedt

6、oUSD192/t.ChineseHRCpriceswereup450400byUSD7toUSD575.ThespreadbetweenChineseandS.Europeanpricesrose350300250toUSD92,abovethantwo-yearaveragespreadofUSD59,withChineseprices200JanAprJulOctJanAprJulOctJanAprJulOctJanAprJulOctJandownE2(upinUSDtermstoUSD30)inthelastthreemonths.1414141415

7、151515161616161717171718Source:TheSteelIndexPlate:S.EuropeanpricesupE13;USpricesupbyUSD9S.EuropeanpriceswereupE13toE569(upUSD21toUSD701).PricesroseE19inFigure2:Rawmaterialpricesthepastmonth.N.EuropeanpriceswereupbyE5toE599(upUSD11toUSD738).USD/tIronoreFines62%Fe,CFRTianjin,ChinaShre

8、ddedscrap,US(RHS)US