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1、Economics04July2017Whooa,lookattradeFredericNeumannWhatthelatestPMIsmeanforAsiaCo-headofAsianEconomicsResearchAfteracoupleofmonthsoffizzle,exportsareagainshowingsomesizzle.AcrossTheHongkongandShanghaiAsia,withtheloneexceptionofKorea,newexportordersexpandedlas
2、tmonth.BankingCorporationLimited+85228224556Possibly,wearecatchingtheearlypartoftheiPhoneproductionramp-uphere.fredericneumann@hsbc.com.hkStill,alargegapremainswithdevelopedmarketsintermsoftradeperformance.Domestically,thingslooksteadier,withmostindicatorsnot
3、matchingtheexternalViewHSBCGlobalResearchat:http://www.research.hsbc.comstrength.It'sallconsistentwithafairlydecentsummer.Butthiscouldyetturnouttobeanarrow,andfairlyshort-lived,bounce.Jobgrowthinmanufacturing,forIssuerofreportone,isstillrelativelyweakinemergi
4、ngAsia,includingChina.Andthat'llkeepaTheHongkongandShanghaidamperonconsumption.BankingCorporationLimitedDisclosures&DisclaimerStartwithourfirstheatmap.ThingsturnedouttobeatadbetterthaninMay,butit'sstillmixed.ThisreportmustbereadwiththeThebiggestbouncecameinCh
5、ina,withtheCaixinindexpushingitsheadagainabovethedisclosuresandtheanalystcertificationsintheDisclosurewaterlineandtheNBSmeasurerisingaswell(bothtothreemonthhighs).That'sreassuring,notappendix,andwiththeDisclaimer,leastgiventhatfinancialtighteninginChinawasexp
6、ectedtoweighonactivity,atleastatthewhichformspartofitmargin.KoreaandThailandalsoswungintoexpansion(theformerforthefirsttimein11months).Meanwhile,theEurozoneisflying,withGermanyinthepilotseat.IntheUS,theISMwaswayup(34monthshigh),butthePMItickeddown(lowestin6mo
7、nths).Neworderstickedupaswell,broadlyinlinewithheadlinePMIs.Weshouldthusgetfairlydecentactivityatthestartofthethirdquarterallaround.Note,however,thatinAsiaatleasttheimprovementinneworderswasmatchedbyariseininventory.Thatleavesour'neworderminusinventorymeasure
8、'unchangedonthemonth(chart1).Oursecondheartmapisalotmoreimpressive.TakealookatnewexportordersinJune:bouncy,bouncy,bouncy.Forsomereason,Korea'smeasureisstillunderwater(electronicsaredoingw
