汇丰银行-亚洲宏观经济-vietnam at a glance：back in stride-20170705-hsbc

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1、Flashnote5July2017VietnamataglanceECONOMICSVIETNAMBackinstrideVietnam’seconomygrew6.2%y-o-yinQ22017,pickingupNoelanArbisfrom5.2%inQ1Economist,ASEANTheHongkongandShanghaiBankingCorporationLimitednoelan.arbis@hsbc.com.hkPMIalsoedgedupto52.5inJunefrom

2、51.6intheprevious+85228224325month,drivenbyariseinnewordersMeanwhile,headlineinflationcontinuestocoolduetoadropinfoodandtransportcosts;coreCPIstayedat1.3%y-o-yGrowthquickenedto6.2%inQ2:Vietnam’sGDPgrew6.2%y-o-yinthesecondquarter,followingaslowstarttothe

3、year.ThejumpinQ2washigherthanwehadexpected(5.9%)andwasdrivenbygainsinboththeindustrialandservicessectors.Despitetheupside,wehaveparedbackour2017growthforecastfrom6.4%to6.0%afterfactoringinthelowfirstquarterprint(SeeAsianEconomicsQuarterly:Seeyouatthebeac

4、h,29June2017).JunePMIrisesto52.5afterfallinginMay:June’sPMIdataalsoshowednotableimprovementinthemanufacturingsectorafterhittinga14-monthlowof51.6inMay.NewordersdrovethePMI’sJuneincrease,rising2.1pointsfromthepreviousmonth,whileinventoryoffinishedgoodsdec

5、lined.Highernewordersdomesticallyandexternallyalsosupportedacontinuedincreaseinoutputandstaffinglevels,whichbothexpandedatafasterpacethaninthepreviousmonth.Inflationcoolsforasecondstraightmonth:Juneheadlineinflationrose2.5%y-o-ybutslowed0.2pptfromtheprev

6、iousmonth.Decreasesinfoodandoilpricesweretheprimarydriversoftheslowdown.May’sheadlineCPIalsodeclined0.5pptfromthepreviousmonthduetoadropinfoodandtransportprices.WerecentlycutourCPIforecastforthisyearandnextto2.6%and2.8%y-o-y(from4.4%and4.0%),respectively

7、.(AlsoinAsianEconomicsQuarterly:Seeyouatthebeach).Meanwhile,coreinflationremainedat1.3%y-o-y,thesameasMay’sfigure.Stillonsolidground:Vietnam’sbounce-backinQ2reaffirmsitsstrongeconomicfooting,despiteasluggishstarttotheyear.Weexpectthecountrytogainmomentum

8、inthesecondhalfasforeigninvestmentandagriculturalproductionpickup.However,thesecondquarterdatafurtherhighlightsthecountry’srelianceon✔VoteinAsiamoneyBrokersPoll2017industrialproductionandexports(particularlyfromtheforeigni