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《汇丰银行-亚洲-宏观经济-不是人人，不是处处：近期的pmi对亚洲来说意味着什么-20171003-hsbc-not everyone，not everywhere what the latest pmis mean for asia》由会员上传分享，免费在线阅读，更多相关内容在行业资料-天天文库。
1、Economics03October2017Noteveryone,noteverywhereFredericNeumannWhatthelatestPMIsmeanforAsiaCo-headofAsianEconomicsResearch4Punchyheadlines.Germany’smanufacturingPMIisabove60,andTheHongkongandShanghaisoisAmerica’sISM.Thathasn’thappenedinyears…jointlyorBankingCorporationLimited+85228224556separately.
2、AndChina’sofficialPMIisata5-yearhigh.Japan’sfredericneumann@hsbc.com.hkTankan(thoughnota“PMI”)joltedtoa10-yearhigh.Takeabreather.Uponcloserinspection,it’snotallthatjuicy.Infact,ourViewHSBCGlobalResearchat:http://www.research.hsbc.comindexforemergingAsiaisflatandstillbadlylaggingadvancedmarkets–asw
3、enotedbefore,thelatestDMupswingissomehowbypassingemergingAsia.NewexportordersfortheregionactuallyIssuerofreportTheHongkongandShanghaitickeddownlastmonth.China’sprivatePMIeased,India’sisBankingCorporationLimitedunchanged,Korea’sisbarelyexpanding,Taiwan’stickeddown,asDisclosures&DisclaimerdidASEAN’s
4、.ThisreportmustbereadwiththedisclosuresandtheanalystcertificationsintheDisclosureTurntoourfirstheatmap.Thingsinadvancedmarketslookprettypunchy(sorry,exceptfortheappendix,andwiththeDisclaimer,whichformspartofitUK).ISM,Germany’sPMI…andFrancenow,too!Meanwhile,Japannotchedupanothergain.InemergingAsia,
5、however,thingsaremoremixed.China’sNBSindexdrovetheheadlines,butnotethedipinCaixin’s.Theformerismoregearedtolargerfirms,thelattertosmallerones.Smallandmedium-sizedenterprisesarestillstruggling;it’sthebiggerones,oftenstate-owned,thataredoingbetter(nowonderthePBoCjustintroducedatargetedRRRcutforSMEle
6、nding).MalaysiadraggeddownASEAN.Taiwan,Asia’sstarperformeroverthepastyear,pulledbackatouch,thoughKoreamovedabovethewaterline.Thepuzzlingdivergence,inshort,betweenDMsandEMAsia,continues(Chart1).ThepaceofneworderexpansioninemergingAsiawasunchangedonthemonth(at52.5,notbad,butnotaccelerating).Ournewor
7、der-to-inventoryratio,however,sendsamorebullishsignal:itjumpedlastmonth,spurredinlargepartbycontinuedstrengthinChina,andabounceinIndia.Thatsuggeststhatoutputgrowthshouldpickupinthecomingmonths(chart2).Oursecondhe
