汇丰银行-亚洲科技-asia technology：thoughts from the road-20170711-hsbc

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1、11July2017AsiaTechnologyEQUITIESTECHNOLOGYThoughtsfromtheroadHongKongClientmarketingsuggestsmoststickingwithwhathasworkedStevenPelayo,CFARegionalHeadofTechnologyResearchWhilestocksstrong,tooearlytocallthepeakasbuildjustbeganTheHongkongandShanghaiBankingCorporationLimitedstevenpelayo@hs

2、bc.com.hkHSBC’stechteamfavesareMediaTek,ASE,SEMCO,LG+85228224391Innotek,SKHynix,SamsungElectronics,Tripod,andKinsusHSBCTechnologyResearchTeam*FollowingourrecentreportAsiaTech–Wheretonow?Favouriteideasfor2H17,we*Employedbyanon-USaffiliateofHSBCSecurities(USA)Inc.andnotregistered/qualifiedpur

3、suanttoFINRAregulationsspentthelastweekmeetingclientsinAsia.Sentimentwasbullish,butalsonervous.Ononehand,muchofthestrongperformanceyear-to-datehasbeenbasedonrisingexpectationsratherthanfundamentalimprovement.Infact,mostofTaiwantechcut2017eforecaststhisyearduetolingeringexcessinventories,apau

4、seaheadofnewphonelaunches,andTWDappreciation.Thisledto2017econsensusbecomingmoreback-endloadedandthuspresentssomenear-termrisk–especiallyifmanufacturinghiccupscausedelaysinnewproductlaunches.Onthepositiveside,techcyclesusuallydon’tenduntilastrongsupplychainbuildleadstoexcesses,orunlessdemand

5、unexpectedlysoftens.Nomatterwhatthefinalproductshipmentdatesare,wesuspectconsumerswillwait,andinvestorswillnotmeaningfullytrimtheirpositions.Hence,thenear-termriskmaybemoresidewaysthandown.Wesuspectthatarecoveryinnon-Applesmartphonesmaytightensupply;anynotabledelaysinproductavailabilitycould

6、pushgrowthinto2018(making2017aneasiercomp).Thefollowingtopicswereoninvestors’minds:Memorysupercycle?DrivenbyhigherASPsandrobustbitdemand,aswellasnewermarketslikeserverDRAM,investors’interestinthememoryspaceremainshigh.Whilesomeexpressedconcerngivenquarterlycapexincreasesandequipmentshipmentd

7、ataoverthelastfewquarters,almosteveryonewondersifitmaybe“differentthistime”.iPhone8debate.Thefateofalatedate.Irritateorcaptivate?Asvariousnewssourcesspeculateonpotentialdelaysinthenext-geniPhone,investors’questionssuggestjitteriness.Wealsobelieveth