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1、Economics-DataReactions03July2017ChinaCaixinManufacturingPMIJulia(June2017)WangEconomist,GreaterChinaTheHongkongandShanghaiBankingCorporationLimitedWhatcontraction?+85236043663juliarwang@hsbc.com.hkTheCaixinChinaManufacturingPMIroseto50.4,betterthanexpe
2、ctedandreversinglastmonth’ssurprisedrop(49.6).ItconfirmedourviewthattheViewHSBCGlobalResearchat:contractioninMaywastemporaryandlikelyduetodatavolatility.InJune,boththehttp://www.research.hsbc.comNBSandtheCaixinPMIshowedthatthemanufacturingsectorcontinue
3、dtoexpandatasteadypace.PriceindicatorssuggestthatgrowthmomentumhasIssuerofreportTheHongkongandShanghaisoftenedsomewhatsinceQ1,butisstillreasonablystrongandconsistentwithaBankingCorporationLimitedrecoverytrend.Sectorssuchasequipmentandelectricmachineryco
4、ntinuetoDisclosures&Disclaimeroutperform.Steelsectoralsopickeduponthebackoffurthercapacityadjustment.ThisreportmustbereadwiththedisclosuresandtheanalystWithactivitydatashowingmorestabilitythisyear,alleyesareonpolicymakersascertificationsintheDisclosuret
5、heyseektousethewindowofopportunityofferedbythegrowthrecoverytoappendix,andwiththeDisclaimer,whichformspartofitstrengthenfinancialregulations.Astheeconomyisstillatanearlystageofrecovery,policymakersshouldmovecautiouslyandbalancestrongerregulationswiththe
6、needtoprotectthegrowthrecovery.FactsTheCaixinPMIroseto50.4from49.6,betterthanexpectedFigure1:CaixinPMIbreakdownSource:Caixin,HSBCNB:Pinkis>50(WeakerorUnchanged);Redis≥50(Better);Greyis<50(BetterorUnchanged);DarkGreyis<50(Weaker)Economics-DataReactionsCh
7、inaCaixinManufacturingPMI(June2017)03July2017Figure2:Caixinvs.NBSFigure3:Caixin,NewOrdersSource:CEIC,Caixin,HSBCSource:CEIC,Caixin,HSBCImplicationsAfterasurprisedropinMay(andthefirstcontractionsinceJune2016),theCaixinPMIreverseditselfandroseto50.4inJune
8、.Thebreakdownshowedbroad-basedaccelerationinneworders,outputandpurchasingactivitywhileinventorylevelsremainbelow50(suggestingfirmshavenotover-stocked).Today’sreadingconfirmedourview(seehereforlastmonth’supdate)thatthecontractioni
