A new era for manufacturing in China

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1、JUNE2013AneweraformanufacturinginChinaKarelEloot,AlanHuang,andMartinLehnichCompaniesthatcontinuetobasetheirmanufacturingstrategiessolelyonChina’srock-bottomwagesandstratosphericdomesticgrowthratesareinforarudeawakening.Newchallengeswillrequirenewcompetitivepriorities.China’semergenceasamanufactu

2、ringpowerhousehasbeenastonishing.Inseventhplace,trailingItaly,asrecentlyas1980,ChinanotonlyovertooktheUnitedStatesin2011tobecometheworld’slargestproducerofmanufacturedgoodsbutalsouseditshugemanufacturingenginetoboostlivingstandardsbydoublingthecountry’sGDPpercapitaoverthelastdecade.Thatachieve-m

3、enttooktheindustrializingUnitedKingdom150years.Today,however,Chinafacesnewchallengesaseconomicgrowthslows,wagesandotherfactorcostsrise,valuechainsbecomemorecomplex,andconsumersgrowmoresophisticatedanddemanding.Moreover,thesepressuresarerisingagainstthebackdropofamorefundamentalmacroeconomicreali

4、ty:thealmostinevitabledeclineintherelativeroleofmanufacturinginChinaasitgetsricher.1Manu-facturinggrowthisslowingmorequicklythanaggregateeconomicgrowth,forexample,andevidencesuggeststhatthecountryisalreadylosingsomenewfactoryinvestmentstolower-costlocations,suchasVietnam,sparkingconcernaboutChin

5、a’smanufacturingcompetitiveness.21Empiricalevidencesuggeststhatmanufacturing’srelativecontributiontoanationaleconomytendstopeakwhenitreaches20to35percentofthecountry’sGDP.Today,China’smanufacturingsectoraccountsforroughly40percentofitsGDP.2In2011,thegrowthrateofChina’smanufacturingGDPhadslowedby

6、34percentfromitsprecrisispeak.OverallGDPgrowthslowedby20percentoverthesameperiod.2Competitiveness,ofcourse,isabroadtermthatcanconfusemorethanclarify.Duringthe1980s,forexample,therewasmuchhand-wringingintheUnitedStatesaboutdecliningmanufacturingcompetitivenessversusJapan.Inthefollowingdecade,howe

7、ver,thoseconcernsfaded,replacedbyafocusonthefailingsof“JapanInc.,”theSUV-fueledresurgenceoftheUSautomotivesector,andtheboominUShigh-techmanufacturing.IntheUnitedStatesthen,asinChinatoday,thereisn’tjustonemanufacturingsector;