A new era for manufacturing in China (1)

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1、JUNE2013AneweraformanufacturinginChinaKarelEloot,AlanHuang,andMartinLehnichCompaniesthatcontinuetobasetheirmanufacturingstrategiessolelyonChina’srock-bottomwagesandstratosphericdomesticgrowthratesareinforarudeawakening.Newchallengeswillrequirenewcompetitivepriorities.China’semergence

2、asamanufacturingpowerhousehasbeenastonishing.Inseventhplace,trailingItaly,asrecentlyas1980,ChinanotonlyovertooktheUnitedStatesin2011tobecometheworld’slargestproducerofmanufacturedgoodsbutalsouseditshugemanufacturingenginetoboostlivingstandardsbydoublingthecountry’sGDPpercapitaoverthe

3、lastdecade.Thatachieve-menttooktheindustrializingUnitedKingdom150years.Today,however,Chinafacesnewchallengesaseconomicgrowthslows,wagesandotherfactorcostsrise,valuechainsbecomemorecomplex,andconsumersgrowmoresophisticatedanddemanding.Moreover,thesepressuresarerisingagainstthebackdrop

4、ofamorefundamentalmacroeconomicreality:thealmostinevitabledeclineintherelativeroleofmanufacturinginChinaasitgetsricher.1Manu-facturinggrowthisslowingmorequicklythanaggregateeconomicgrowth,forexample,andevidencesuggeststhatthecountryisalreadylosingsomenewfactoryinvestmentstolower-cost

5、locations,suchasVietnam,sparkingconcernaboutChina’smanufacturingcompetitiveness.21Empiricalevidencesuggeststhatmanufacturing’srelativecontributiontoanationaleconomytendstopeakwhenitreaches20to35percentofthecountry’sGDP.Today,China’smanufacturingsectoraccountsforroughly40percentofitsG

6、DP.2In2011,thegrowthrateofChina’smanufacturingGDPhadslowedby34percentfromitsprecrisispeak.OverallGDPgrowthslowedby20percentoverthesameperiod.2Competitiveness,ofcourse,isabroadtermthatcanconfusemorethanclarify.Duringthe1980s,forexample,therewasmuchhand-wringingintheUnitedStatesaboutde

7、cliningmanufacturingcompetitivenessversusJapan.Inthefollowingdecade,however,thoseconcernsfaded,replacedbyafocusonthefailingsof“JapanInc.,”theSUV-fueledresurgenceoftheUSautomotivesector,andtheboominUShigh-techmanufacturing.IntheUnitedStatesthen,asinChinatoday,thereisn’tjustonemanufact

8、uringsector;