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1、Economics-DataReactions01September2017IndiaPranjulBhandariAugustManufacturingPMIrebounds,butmodestlyChiefEconomist,IndiaHSBCSecuritiesandCapitalYesterday'spre-GSTmanufacturingGDPgrowthdata(fortheApril-Junequarter)Markets(India)PrivateLimitedwasdraggeddownto
2、afiveyearlow,partlybyGSTrelateduncertainties.Today's+912222681841pranjul.bhandari@hsbc.co.inpost-GSTPMIManufacturingprint,showedsomewelcomereboundacrosstheboard.Output,newordersandtheorder-to-inventoryratiotickedhigherasuncertaintiesaroundthenewtaxregimeaba
3、ted.CorporatemarginsalsoimprovedAayushiasoutputpricestickedhigherwhileinputpriceinflationslowed.Andyet,eachofChaudharythesegrowthindicatorsremainbelowthepre-demonetizationlevelsandfutureconfidencehaspaledatad.WeseedownsideriskstoourbelowconsensusAssociateHS
4、BCSecuritiesandCapitalgrowthforecastof7.1%forFY18.Markets(India)PrivateLimited+912222682761aayushi.chaudhary@hsbc.co.inFactsViewHSBCGlobalResearchat:-India'smanufacturingPMIexpandedto51.2inAugust,upfrom47.9inJuly,whichhadbeenhithttp://www.research.hsbc.comb
5、yGSTrelateduncertainties.Theimprovementwasacrosstheboard:output,newdomesticordersandtheorder-to-inventoryratio,alltickedhigher.Issuerofreport-Inputpricesexpandedbytheslowestclipinayear,whileoutputpricesgrewatadfaster,therebyHSBCSecuritiesandCapitalMarkets(I
6、ndia)PrivateLimitedimprovingthecorporatemargins.Disclosures&DisclaimerThisreportmustbereadwiththedisclosuresandtheanalystImplicationscertificationsintheDisclosureappendix,andwiththeDisclaimer,BacktobusinesswhichformspartofitAugustmanufacturingPMIshowedsomes
7、ignsofnormalizationaftercontractingsharplyinJuly,whentheGSTregimewasimplemented.Thesurveyresponsesindicatedthattheincreaseinproductionstemmedfromgreaterclarityonthenewtaxregimeandnormalizingdemandconditionsinthemarket.-Newdomesticordersandtoalesserextentexp
8、ortsorders,expanded,butthepaceremainedwellbelowthepre-demonetizationperiod.-Order-to-inventoryratioalsopickedbackup,withimprovementinnewordersandadrawdownofinventory.Howeverthepick-upintheratiowasonlym
