汇丰银行-东盟-商品市场-东盟透视：商品再配置-20170928-hsbc-asean perspectives：commodity reconfigurations

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1、28September2017ASEANPerspectivesECONOMICSASEANCommodityreconfigurationsASEAN’scommodityexposurecontinuestoevolve,complicatingJosephIncalcaterratheregion’ssensitivitytooilandbroadercommoditypricesEconomistTheHongkongandShanghaiBankingCorporationLimitedjoseph.f.incalcaterra@hsbc

2、.com.hkWhileIndonesiacontinuestohavethelargestcommodity+85228224687exposure(c50%ofexports),Malaysiahas“re-commoditized”NoelanArbisEconomistInthispiece,wetakeafreshlookatcommoditysensitivitiesandTheHongkongandShanghaiBankingCorporationLimitednoelan.arbis@hsbc.com.hkconsiderwhathig

3、heroilpriceswouldmeanforASEAN+85228224325JingyangChenEconomistExactlytwoyearsagothismonthwelookedatASEAN’ssensitivitytocommoditiesTheHongkongandShanghaiBankingCorporationLimited(see:ASEANPerspectives:Commoditycomplications,September2015).Atthetime,jingyang.chen@hsbc.com.hk+85229966

4、558commoditypriceswereinthedoldrumsandwethoughtitwashightimetofleshoutthenumbersandhighlightwheretherewerevulnerabilitiesfromlowcommodityMaitreyiDasAssociateprices(thinkexportsandfiscalrevenues),butalsoopportunities(subsidyreformandpotentialcurrentaccountimprovements).Asimpleyetsal

5、ienttakeawaywas,andremains,thatASEANisnolongerastraightforwardcommodityplay.OnlyMalaysiaretainsapositiveoil&gasnetexportbalance,havingrecentlyregaineditsformerstatusasanetoilexporter(albeitonlymarginally).AlthoughthedropincoalandpalmoilpricesinIndonesiaputsignificantpressureonrural

6、consumption,lowoilpricessimultaneouslyenabledthegovernmenttoopportunisticallytacklesubsidieswhileimprovingthecurrentaccount,heraldingthefundamentalimprovementsthathavecontributedtothevoraciousandseeminglyinsatiableforeigninvestorappetiteforIndonesianassetsasoflate.Inthetwoyearssinc

7、ethereport,wehaveseenarecoveryinthebroadcommodityindices,albeitanunspectacularone.Still,theimpactofrelativelylowcommoditypricescontinuestobefelt;fromIndonesia’sbankingsystemtoSingapore’soffshoreengineeringindustry,whereoutputcontinuestocontractbydoubledigits.Fornow,thisiseasilydisg

8、uisedbysoaringtechshipment