汇丰银行-东盟-宏观经济-东盟视角：当改革遇到政治-20171031-hsbc-asean_perspectiveswhen_reforms_meet_politics

《汇丰银行-东盟-宏观经济-东盟视角：当改革遇到政治-20171031-hsbc-asean_perspectiveswhen_reforms_meet_politics》由会员上传分享，免费在线阅读，更多相关内容在行业资料-天天文库。

1、31October2017ASEANPerspectivesECONOMICSASEANWhenreformsmeetpoliticsTheupcoming31stASEANSummitinManila,withPresidentJosephIncalcaterra,CFAEconomistTrumpinattendance,willmarkthebloc's50thanniversary…TheHongkongandShanghaiBankingCorporationLimitedjoseph.f.inca

2、lcaterra@hsbc.com.hk…agoodtimetotakestockoftheregion'sgrowthpotential,and+85228224687thereformsneededineachcountrytosuperchargegrowthNoelanArbisEconomistTheHongkongandShanghaiBankingCorporationLimitedHowever,abusypoliticalcalendaroverthenexttwoyearsmaynoelan.a

3、rbis@hsbc.com.hk+85228224325presentcomplications,especiallyinIndonesiaandMalaysiaJingyangChenASEANislikelytofeatureprominentlyinworldwidemediaheadlinesinNovember.EconomistTheHongkongandShanghaiBankingCorporationLimitedThe31stASEANSummitwillbeheldonNovember12-13i

4、nManila,followedbytheEastjingyang.chen@hsbc.com.hkAsiaSummit,whichincludesthe8regionalpartnersinvolvedinRCEP(theRegional+85229966558ComprehensiveEconomicPartnership).PresidentTrump'sattendanceattheASEANMaitreyiDasSummitwilllikelyinjectadegreeofglobalrelevance,bu

5、twiththeregioncelebratingitsEconomicsAssociate50thanniversary,nowisagoodtimetofocusonanASEAN-specificstory.Inthispiecewelookatwhatmustbedonetoallowtheregiontorealizeitslong-elusivepotential.Inthepastwehavearguedthatenhancedintegrationisnecessarytorealizethebenef

6、itsofalargeconsumermarketandproductionbase,inlinewiththeintentionsoftheASEANEconomicCommunity.Thisisatopicwewillrevisitsoon.ButinthiseditionofASEANPerspectiveswetakeamoregranularapproachbyidentifyingthetopthreereformsthateachcountryneedstorealizeinordertofundame

7、ntallyimprovetheGDPtrajectoryandallowittoreach,orsustain,potentialgrowth.Why3?Ultimately,allgovernmentshavelimitedpoliticalcapitalandconstrictingelectiontimelines,meaningtheywillneedtobestrategicwiththeirpriorities.Forexample,inIndonesia,c134millionvotersacross1

8、7provincesincludingmostofJavawillvoteinregionalelectionsinJune2018-whicharelikelytoserveasproxiesforpresidentialelectionsinApril2019.Anextendedcampaignperiodmayreduce