汇丰银行-东盟-宏观策略-疲软迹象-20170929-hsbc-signs of weakness strait talk

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1、29September2017SignsofweaknessEQUITYSTRATEGYASEANStraitTalkWecitetheimpactofaweakdollaronASEANcompaniesIsmaelPili*HeadofASEANandSouthAsiaEquityResearchTheconsumerandautosectorgenerallybenefitfromdollarTheHongkongandShanghaiBankingCorporationwea

2、knessledbyICBP,KLBF,URC,ASII,andUMWHLimited,SingaporeBranchismael.pili@hsbc.com.sg+6566580606CompaniesfromvarioussectorsthatarenegativelyaffectedJayantParasramka*byadepreciateddollarareUNTR,BAB,CIT,DBS,andOCBCAssociateBangaloreThecurrencyimpactoncorp

3、orateprofitabilityisaquestionthatcomesupwith*Employedbyanon-USaffiliateofHSBCSecurities(USA)Inc,andisregularity,andthisyear,thequestionisskewedtowardstheimpactofaweakernotregistered/qualifiedpursuanttoFINRAregulationsUSD.Asitspinsdowntotheequitymarket

4、sandfromthecompaniesunderourcoverage,wecitetheimpactaweakerUSD(viatranslationgainsorlossesinrevenuesorcostsintheirhomecountry)wouldhaveoncorporateprofitability.ConsumersandautossectormostpositivelyaffectedbydollarweaknessIngeneral,thesectorsmorepositi

5、velyaffectedbyaweakdollarareconsumersandautoslargelyduetoimportedcosts.ConsumercompaniesareaffectedbytheUSDmovementlargelyduetoimportedrawmaterialsandinputsthataredenominatedinUSD.However,itisdifficulttoquantifyitsexactimpact.Generallyspeaking,KalbeFa

6、rma,IndofoodCBP,andUniversalRobinaCorpshouldbenefitthemostfromthegreenback’sweakness.AutocompaniesbenefitfromaweakerUSDduetoimportedautoproductsandparts.AstraandUMWHoldingsstandtogainthemostfromadepreciateddollar.NegativeimpactfromaweakerdollarOtherse

7、ctorsarelessaffectedasagroup,thoughthereareindividualcompaniesinagivensectorthatmaybemoresusceptibletocurrencymoves.UnitedTractorsandBumiArmadaarenetnegativewithaUSDdepreciation,astheirrevenuesare100%denominatedinUSD.TheSingaporebanksDBSandOCBCwouldbe

8、mostMiFIDII–ResearchaffectedbyaweakdollargiventheirHKpresence,whileonlyCityDevelopmentsinIsyouraccessagreed?thepropertysectorthroughitshotelaffiliatestakeismoremeaningfullyaffected.WeCONTACTustodaythinkthereareminimalimpactsontheoil&gas,teleco