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1、November8,201808:50AMGMTChinaEconomics
2、AsiaPacificStrongerAXJDemandOffsetWeakerExportstotheUSOctobertraderemainedresilient,ledbyexportstoAXJ,buttheslowdownofUSdemandhasbecomemorevisibleaftertariffhikesinQ3.Weexpectexportgrowthtoweakenin2019amidrisingtradefrictions,withitsimpactongrowthpartlycushion
3、edbypolicyeasing.MORGANSTANLEYASIALIMITEDJennyZheng,CFAECONOMISTJenny.L.Zheng@morganstanley.com+8523963-4015RobinXingECONOMISTRobin.Xing@morganstanley.com+8522848-6511ZhipengCaiECONOMISTZhipeng.Cai@morganstanley.com+8522239-7820Oct-18Sep-18Aug-18Jul-18Jun-182017TradeBalance,US$bn34.031.326.427.440
4、.6420Exports,US$bn217.3226.7217.4215.6216.62,263YoY,%15.614.49.611.610.67.9Bydestination,YoY,%Japan7.914.33.712.36.86.1EU14.617.48.49.510.49.1ASEAN13.714.115.915.419.27.0HongKong23.618.69.316.68.1-4.0Korea7.72.7-4.18.26.47.5Taiwan16.85.00.214.712.77.2Imports,US$bn183.3195.0189.5187.5175.11,844YoY,%
5、21.414.520.627.013.816.1Byproduct,YoY,%UnwroughtCopper&Products20.014.611.831.635.618.5SteelProducts19.03.211.69.52.115.3PlasticsinPrimaryForms21.811.923.334.724.917.4CrudePetroleumOil89.046.674.463.042.239.4IronOre&Concentrates11.7-8.86.619.7-5.133.8FXReserves,US$bn3,0533,0873,1103,1183,1123,011Ex
6、hibit1:PerformanceofTradeandFXReservesTradegrowthreboundedunexpectedly:Exportgrowthacceleratedto15.6%YoYinOctober(vs.14.4%inSeptember,consensus:11.7%,MSe:9.5%),ledbystrongexportstoAXJcountries,suggestingstillresilientglobaldemand.Thatsaid,thesequentialgrowthofChina'sexportstotheUScameinweakerthanth
7、eseasonalpattern,likelyreflectingtheimpactofUStariffhikesinJul-Sep.Meanwhile,MonthlyChangeinFXReserves-14.1-7.3-7.814.97.8-293importvaluegrowthreboundedto21.4%YoYinOctober(vs.14.5%inSeptember,consensus:14.5%,MSe:13%),drivenbyprocessingtrade(particularlyinelectronicsgoods)andstrongercommodityimpor
8、ts(ledbycrudeoil,ironoreandcoalamidwinterproductioncontrols).Inturn,thetradebalancereboundedslightlytoUS$34.0bn(vs.US$31.7bninAugust).(AdjustedforValuationEffect),US$bnSource:GeneralAdministrationofCustoms
