汇丰银行-大宗商品铜-中国进口废品禁令提振铜价-20170801-hsbc-commoditiesunearthedcopper,chinascrapimportbanandstrongdemandliftcopperprices

《汇丰银行-大宗商品铜-中国进口废品禁令提振铜价-20170801-hsbc-commoditiesunearthedcopper,chinascrapimportbanandstrongdemandliftcopperprices》由会员上传分享，免费在线阅读，更多相关内容在行业资料-天天文库。

1、1August2017CommoditiesunearthedEQUITIESMETALS&MININGCopper:ChinascrapimportbanandstrongdemandliftcopperpricesGLOBALCopperpricesjumpedonnewsthatChinawillbancopperJeffYuan*scrapimportsstartingin2019HeadofHK/ChinaMetals&MiningEquityResearchTheHongkongandShanghaiBankingCorpo

2、rationLimitedjeffsyuan@hsbc.com.hkWethinktherecentpricerallyispartlyjustifiedbystrong+85239417010ChinesemacrofiguresaswellasconcernsoverimportbanJonathanBrandt,CFALatAmMetals&MiningAnalystHSBCSecurities(USA)IncOurlong-termcopperpriceforecastisunchangedatUSD3.10/lbJonathan.l.

3、brandt@us.hsbc.com+12125254499Copperpricejumpsonscrapimportban:ThecopperpriceroseaboveUSD6400/tDavidPleming*HeadofEMEAMetalsMiningontheLME,upmorethan7%overthepastweek,mainlydrivenbynewsthatChinaHSBCSecurities(SouthAfrica)(Pty)Ltdwillbancategory7copperscrapimports,suchasscrapmo

4、torsandwires,startingindavid.pleming@za.hsbc.com+271167642282019(CRUreportsthatscrapprocessorsthatfailenvironmentalinspectionthisyearwillbeforcedtostopimportingimmediately).Inourview,themarketisconcerned*Employedbyanon-USaffiliateofHSBCSecurities(USA)Inc,andisthatthiswillleadt

5、osignificantlylesscopperscrapsupply,whichwillrequirehighernotregistered/qualifiedpursuanttoFINRAregulationsrefinedcopperimportsinChinatooffsettheimbalance.Wethinkconcernsrelatingtothebanlookoverplayed:First,thebantargetscategory7scrap,whichismainlylowgradecopperscrap,suchasscr

6、apwireandscrapmotors,whichrequiresdismantlingandprocessingbeforeitcanbeusedbysmelters.Chinaimportedc3.3mtofcopperscrapin2016,ofwhichCategory7scrapaccountedforc60%,orc2mt.Duetoitslowgradenature(15-20%),actualcontainedmetalisonlyaround300ktto400kt,equivalenttojust1.5%ofthe23mtco

7、ppermarketwhich,theoretically,wouldbeenoughtomoveoursupply/demandforecastsintoaslightdeficitinthecomingyearsifthesescrapimportsdisappearedaltogether,whichisunlikely(seep3).Second,webelievethiswillforcecategory7scraptobedismantledandprocessedoutsideofChinaandconvertedintocatego

8、ry6(highergrade)forimportpost2018.Chinesescraprecyclingcompan