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1、UBSGlobalI/O:Miner’sPriceReviewUBSResearchUBSResearchTHESISMAPMOSTFAVOREDLEASTFAVOREDRutile,Nickel,ILU,IGOIronOre,Graphite,AAL,FMG,SYRPIVOTALQUESTIONSQ:WhatarethekeydemandsignalstowatchheadingintoH219e?TradewaruncertaintyisbackandiskeytoH219performanceofbothcommoditiesandequitie
2、s.De-escalationisourbasecase,butanyescalationwouldlikelyseeahittoglobalgrowthandwiththatfurtherdownsidetocommodities,inparticularbasemetals.WehavealsoseensomedeclineinPMIssuggestingeconomiesareonthevergeofcontraction,whiletheFed’smoredovishstancesuggestsupsidetogoldpricing.Thede
3、mandsiderisk-rewardbalanceisuncertaintillweseewherewestandposttheupcomingG20(27-29June)anddrivesourMarketWeightcall.Q:Istheironoremarketlikelytoremaintighterforlongerreflectingdisruptions?Theironoremarketin2019hassufferedthemostdisruptionswecanrecallwithanestimated100Mtofsupplyr
4、emovedfromthemarketcfwithourend2018forecast.Theindustryisrespondingviaamixof1)inventorydepletion,2)higherproductionintier2&3producers,3)higherscraprates,4)highersteeltrade,&5)higherChineseironoreoutput.Chineseportinventoriesarefallingsuggestingthemarketremainsindeficitandpricesc
5、ouldremainelevated,&henceisbeingmonitoredclosely.Q:Whichcommodities&equitiesarepreferredheadingintoH219e?Basemetalsarepreferredoverbulks-providedtraderelationsbetweenChina&theUSimprove–withspeculativeshortsunwindingpositionsprovidingpotentialupsidetothecomplex.Inregardstospecifi
6、cstocks,welikethoseexposedtoCopperandNickelgivensupply/demandfundamentalsarestrong.Theseinclude:OZL,ANTO,SCCO,NHY,IGOandFCX.WepreferBHPoverRIOgiventhepotentialforgreaterreturnsinQ3.UBSVIEWNeutralstancemaintained:WemaintainoursectorweightingatNeutral,acknowledgingthatrisksarefine
7、lybalanced.US&globalgrowthneedsmonitoringgivenrecentweakdata&heightenedtradetensions.ButwithChinalikelytomaintainstimulusinthefaceofUStradetensions&industryexpectedtomaintaincapitaldiscipline,wedon'tseelargedownsidepricerisksemergingjustyet.Althoughbatteryrawmaterialsareseendecl
8、ininginQ3whilethermalcoaltradessideways.Goldise
