德银-中国-宏观经济-中国：2018-2020年的机会与风险

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1、DeutscheBankResearchChina:OpportunitiesandRisksin2018-2020ZhiweiZhang,PhDChiefChinaEconomist(+852)22038308

2、zhiwei.zhang@db.comYiXiong,PhDChinaEconomist(+852)22036139

3、yi.xiong@db.comJanuary2018DISCLOSURESANDANALYSTCERTIFICATIONSARELOCATEDINAPPENDIX1.MCI(P)083/04/2017Distrib

4、utedon:17/01/201813:00:00GMTDistributedon:17/01/201812:31:18GMTDeutscheBankZhiweiZhang,PhD

5、(+852)22038308

6、zhiwei.zhang@db.comYiXiong,PhD

7、(+852)22036139

8、yi.xiong@db.comResearchJanuary20187T2se3r0Ot6kwoPaKeymessagesfromthispresentation:1.Tighteningoffiscalpolicyisthemostunde

9、restimatedriskin2018Fiscalspendingisakeydrivingforcebehindtheeconomiccycle.Itsgrowthissettoslowin2018.2.UnprecedentedwealtheffectfromhousingmarketValueofresidentialhousingwentupbyRMB49trn(60%ofGDP)in2017.Itoffersbigopportunitiesaswellasrisks,forChinaandtheworld.3.Wearemo

10、reworriedaboutinflationthanconsensusConsensusfailedtoforecasthighinflationinthepast.4.Automationmaybethenext“disruptiveinnovation”inChinaGovernmentsupportwilllikelypickupinthenextfiveyears.DeutscheBankZhiweiZhang,PhD

11、(+852)22038308

12、zhiwei.zhang@db.comYiXiong,PhD

13、(+852)22

14、036139

15、yi.xiong@db.com1ResearchJanuary2018WhatcausedthebigswinginChina’seconomy?NominalGDPgrowth13%%13●“Chinahardlanding”wasatopicalrisktwoyearsago.1212Fewpeopletalkaboutitnow1111●BigcyclicalmoveinnominalGDPgrowth,from>10%in10102013,to7%in2015,andto99>10%againin2017.Micro-

16、levelvolatilityisevenhigher88●Whatcausedthedownturn77in2014/15andreboundin2016/17?Exportsrecovery,66supplysidereform,theneweconomy,propertymarket?552013Q12014Q12015Q12016Q12017Q1Datasource:DeutscheBank,WINDDeutscheBankZhiweiZhang,PhD

17、(+852)22038308

18、zhiwei.zhang@db.comYiXio

19、ng,PhD

20、(+852)22036139

21、yi.xiong@db.com2ResearchJanuary2018Theproperty-fiscalcycleisthekeydrivingforceContributiontonominalGDPgrowthfromfiscalspending8%%8●Webelievethefiscal7Budgetaryspending7spendingisthekey.Its6Governmentfundsspending6contributiontoGDPgrowth5Totalgovernmen

22、tspending5rangesfrom+7to-2pptson44quarterlybasis33●Budgetaryspendingis22relativelystable,