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1、29January2018
2、10:31AMESTEMStrategyViews“Bank”-ingonEMdomesticgrowthnRatesreflationisdifferentinEMandDM.ThereflationthemegenerallyCaesarMaasry+1(212)902-8763
3、supportsalongequityandshortdurationtradeinthecoremarkets,butinEM,caesar.maasry@gs.comGoldmanSachs&Co.LLClocalbondshaveperformedvery
4、stronglyduringtherecentboutofhigherUSRonGrayinterestrates.Thisisdue,inpart,tofallingriskpremiainEMasfundamentals+1(212)357-6762
5、ron.gray@gs.comGoldmanSachs&Co.LLCimproveaswellasbetterstartingvaluations(or“cushion”intermsofrateslevels).Inturn,thedivergingtrendsininterestrateshavediffere
6、ntimplicationsforBankstocksbetweenEMandDM.nBankequitymoveswiththecurveinDM,withratelevelsinEM.Inthedevelopedmarkets,Bankstockstradequitecloselywiththesteepnessoftheyieldcurve;inmanyEMs,however,Bankstockstradeinverselywiththelevelofinterestrates.Webelievethisisduetotwofactors:(1)higherg
7、rowthinEMcanleadtoloweryieldsthroughareductioninriskpremia;(2)thelargeswingsinEMBanksearningsaredrivenbyloangrowth(i.e.volume)moresothanmargins.nWhybanksandwhynow?BankshavebeenamongthelaggardsintheEMsectorspacesincearoundtheendof2010butweexpectthemtooutperformin2018.Banksstandtobenefitf
8、romthecyclical,domesticuptickthatweexpectinEMgrowththisyear.RelativetoInfoTech,whereconsensusestimatesarequitebullishalready(20%EPSgrowthexpectation)wefindthatBankstradeatrelativelyinexpensivevaluationlevelsvs.theirlocalbenchmarksinmostEMs,andmayoutperformespeciallyineconomieswherethece
9、ntralbankhasroomtoeaserates.WefavorbanksinBrazil,SouthAfrica,India,Mexico,andRussia,andFortheexclusiveuseofDAI.YONGYI@ICBCCS.COM.CNremaincautiousinTurkey.“Bank”-ingonEMdomesticgrowthHeadingintotheendofthefirstmonthof2018,itseemsnotmuchhaschangedforglobalmarkets,withriskassetswellbiddesp
10、iteinterestratescontinuingthesteadyrise.TheenvironmenthasprovedsupportiveofEM,andFXandequityinparticular,whichinturnhasdrivenmacroinvestorstoseekoutthebestimplementationforfurtherupside.GoldmanSachsdoesandseekstodobusinesswithcompaniescoveredinitsresearchreports.Asaresult,investorssh
