德银-英国-服装零售业-折扣商增加，折扣下降-20170925-deutsche bank-uk clothing retail discounters up,discounts down

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1、UKClothingRetailDeutscheBankMarketsResearchEuropeIndustryDateUnitedKingdom25September2017UKClothingRetailRetailRetail-NonFoodIndustryUpdateDiscountersup,discountsdownCharlieMuir-Sands,CFAUKClothingmarket+0.4%over12weeksto27AugustResearchAnalystFavourableweath

2、ercontinuedtohelpthemarket,butotherwisetwokeytrendsoflastmonthseemtohaveimmediatelyreversed:1)M&Shasswungback+44-20-754-75749intosharpsharelosses,2)Nexthasnearlystabliseditssharelosses.TheperiodJainaMistryreportedcovers10weeksofnewdataforDebenhams,8weeksforM&

3、S,4weeksResearchAnalystforNextandnoneforABFoods.Insidewesetoutallthekeychartsasusual,+44-20-754-71337aswellasawidertrackerofhighfrequencyUKclothingdatastatistics,andthismonthlookinmoredetailatthesourcesofM&S'switchinggains.WarwickOkinesResearchAnalystM&S'shar

4、egainsappeartohavebeenshort-lived...+44-20-754-58546Womenswearcontinuedtodecline(-0.6%)thoughthegapwithothercategorieshasnarrowed.Volumesdeclinedfurther,at-1.4%(from-1.0%),butaverageCompaniesfeaturedsellingpricegrowthcontinuedtoclimb.Thiswasaidedbyindustryful

5、lpriceABFoods(ABF.L),GBP3,223.00Buysalesincreasingversusdiscountsalesreducing.LastmonthMarks&Spencer2016A2017E2018Eposteditsfirstmarketsharegainsinnearlyfouryears(+2bps).However,thisDBEPS(GBP)106.20123.91137.86improvementappearstohavebeenshort-livedwithashared

6、eclineof30bpsinP/E(x)29.626.023.4thelatest12weekperiod.Furthermore,thisdoesnotseemattributabletotheEV/EBITA(x)22.718.817.0company'sattemptsatreducingclearancesalesandpromotionalactivity.M&S'Debenhams(DEB.L),GBP47.75Holdfullpricesharedeclined60bps,implyingfull

7、pricesalesfell2%inafullprice2016A2017E2018Emarketup3%.Thoughtooearlytobecertain,itispossibletheanniversaryoftheDBEPS(GBP)7.536.405.97administration,clearanceactivityandsubsequentliquidationofBHSinmeansP/E(x)9.87.58.0M&Sisfacingthetailendofbenefitsfromtheclosur

8、eofitshighstreetpeer.WeEV/EBITA(x)9.47.78.5setouttheswitchingevidenceinside.MarksSpencerGroup(MKS.L),GBP345.10Hold2017A2018E2019E...whilstNextsequentiallyimprovedDBEPS(GBP)30.2128.2627.69