德意志银行-英国行业研究-uk clothing retail prices up,trading down-20170707-deutschebank

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1、UKClothingRetailDeutscheBankMarketsResearchEuropeIndustryDateUnitedKingdom7July2017UKClothingRetailConsumerStaplesFoodManufacturingIndustryUpdatePricesup,tradingdownJainaMistryUKClothingmarket-0.1%overthe12weeksto4JuneTwothemesstoodoutintoday'sKantarWorldPanelrelease:1)tr

2、endsintheUKResearchAnalystclothingmarketsomewhatimprovedand2)thelargeoutperformanceofM&S+44-20-754-71337againstNextintermsoftotalandfullpriceperformance.Theperiodreportedcovers9weeksofnewdataforM&Sand5weeksforNextbuthasalreadyCharlieMuir-Sands,CFAbeenreportedforPrimarkand

3、Debenhams.InsidewealsolookatindustrypriceResearchAnalystinflation,consumerpriceperceptionandthewinnersandlosersofpricerisesin+44-20-754-75749themarket.WarwickOkinesImprovedclothingmarkettrendsweredrivenbyvolumesResearchAnalystTheimprovementinthemarketfrom-0.6%(12weeksto7Ma

4、y)to-0.1%was+44-20-754-58546drivenbybettervolumetrends.Theperiodsawthesmallestvolumedecline(-0.5%)sinceSeptember2016,whilepricesincreased(+0.4%)albeitatasmallerCompaniesfeaturedpacethanpriorperiods.InsideweshowthatindustrydatapointstoupwardABFoods(ABF.L),GBP2,997.00Buypri

5、cingpressureintheclothingmarket,andoursurveyworkfindsthatM&Sand2016A2017E2018ENexthavebeenmostaffectedbydowntrading,withPrimarkthebeneficiary.DBEPS(GBP)106.20123.39135.09P/E(x)29.624.322.2M&SoutperformsNextEV/EBITA(x)22.717.716.2Thisperiod'snumbershighlightthegrowingdivergen

6、cebetweenM&SandNext.Debenhams(DEB.L),GBP43.75HoldM&Sonlysawsmallsharelossesof11bps,animprovementfromthelastperiod2016A2017E2018Eof-27bps.MeanwhiletrendsatNextslowedfurther,withsharelossesof-39bpsDBEPS(GBP)7.536.405.97whichweredrivenbydeclinesinwomenswear.Indeed,Figure5sho

7、wsthatM&SP/E(x)9.86.87.3achievedthelargestoutperformanceagainstNextintermsofsharechangesonEV/EBITA(x)9.47.38.1ourrecordthatgoesbacktoSeptember2013.ThismarksareversaloftrendsMarksSpencerGroup(MKS.L),GBP340.30Holdseenupto2016.Meanwhiletrendsalsodivergedonfullpriceperformanc

8、e.M&S2017A2018E2019Egainedfullpriceshareona12weekbasis(+20bps)whileNext'sfullpriceshareDBEPS(GBP