德意志银行-英国-非食品零售业-价值而不是价值陷阱-20170907-uk non-food retail value not value traps-deutsche bank

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1、UKNon-FoodRetailDeutscheBankMarketsResearchEuropeIndustryDateUnitedKingdom7September2017UKNon-FoodRetailRetailRetail-NonFoodRecommendationChangeValuenotvaluetrapsWarwickOkinesUKnon-foodoutlookappearsbleak,exceptforthevalueandonlineretailersResearchAnaly

2、stTwoyearsagoweasked‘wherehasthemoneygone?’.Householddisposableincomehadbeenstrengtheningbutgeneralretailsalesgrowthhadnot.+44-20-754-58546Unfortunately,theanswerwasnotthathouseholdshadbeenre-buildingtheCharlieMuir-Sands,CFAsavingsratio:thishadfallenfro

3、m12%in2010to8%by2015,andhassinceResearchAnalysttumbledtojust1.7%inQ117.Manyothereconomicindicatorstodayaretrending+44-20-754-75749similarlytotheausterityyearsof2011/2-notadisastergiventhepoliticalupheavalofthepasttwoyears.Wethinkthesqueezedconsumerwills

4、eekoutJainaMistryvalueandweseeABFoods’PrimarkandB&Maswell-placedtobenefitfromthisResearchAnalysttrend.WereiterateourBuyratingsonbothstocks,raisingourforecastsandprice+44-20-754-71337targetsandreconfirmBoohooasourtoppickintheonlinespace.Elsewherewegenerall

5、ycutforecastsanddowngradeWHSmith,oneofourfavouritestocksofKeyChangesthepastdecade,fromBuytoHoldonvaluationgrounds.CompanyTargetPriceRatingBMEB.L400.00to-425.00Weexpectano-growthenvironmentfornonfoodretail…ThecurrentUKenvironmentistoughbutnotdisastrous,a

6、sweshowfromourABF.L3,300.00to-3,500.00reviewofmacroindicators.Whiletherearesomesupportivefactors,thesavingsHFD.L310.00to-ratioata20-yearlowisofgreatestconcern.Overallconsumptionhasnotyet295.00slowedmaterially:totalUKretailsalesgrowthhasactuallyremainedq

7、uitehealthy.KGF.L355.00to-However,non-foodretailsalesgrowthhasbeenlaggingleisurespendforsome325.00timeand,forthepastyear,hasalsolaggedfoodretailsalesgrowth,likeitdidinMKS.L360.00to-345.00theinflationaryausterityyearsatthestartofthedecade.NXT.L4,250.00to-

8、4,150.00….andvaluelookinglikewinningSMWH.L-BuytoHoldThispartofthecycleshouldbenefitthevalueretailers.ThereisevidenceofSource:DeutscheBankconsumerstradingdowninourapparelconsumersurvey,inthegroceryindustryToppicksandintheaccelerati