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1、SteelPriceTrackerDeutscheBankMarketsResearchEuropeIndustryDateFrance26July2017GermanySteelPriceTrackerSteelPeriodicalSteelGlobalHRCpricesrebound,ironorepricesremainstrongBastianSynagowitzEnteringtheseasonallyweakQ3;willsteelpricesfall?Volatilityinsteelequitiesremainsdrivenbymacrowoes
2、/commoditypriceResearchAnalystmovements.Ascostsupportisfading,weexpectEuropeanpricestofall(current+41-44-227-3377spotconditionswouldimplysignificantfurtherearningsupgradesacrossthespace).Thus,progressonanti-dumpingpolicyandovercapacityremovalremainsToppickscrucialinthelongterm. Ourtop
3、picks:1)ArcelorMittal,whichlooksattractiveThyssenKrupp(TKAG.DE),EUR25.62Buytousbasedonstrongcashflow(7-12%FCFyield),valuationandadditionalArcelorMittal(MT.AS),EUR21.77BuySource:DeutscheBankupsideoptionality;and2)ThyssenKrupp,onapossiblynearingeventcatalyst(Tatamerger),recoveringearnin
4、gs,andimprovingCFandsentiment.HRC:SouthernEuropeanpricesupE9Lastweek,SouthernEuropeanpriceswereupE9toE457(upUSD15toUSD527);Figure1:HRCpricesNorthernEuropeanpriceswerealsoupE8toE493(upUSD15toUSD569).PricesUSD/t1,050NorthernEuropeUSAChinaexportstoEuropehavefallenE53inthepastthreemonths
5、.1,000t)t))950900850USHRCpricesupUSD5–ChineseexportpricesupUSD3800750700USHRCpricesincreasedUSD5toUSD677 lastweek.ThepricegaptoEuropefell650600toUSD108/t,whilethepricedifferentialtoChinaclimbedtoUSD173/t.Chinese550500450HRCpriceswereupUSD3toUSD504.ThespreadbetweenChineseandEUprices400
6、350increasedtoUSD23,belowthetwo-yearaveragespreadofUSD65,withChinese300250200pricesupE60(upbyUSD94)inthepastthreemonths.JulOctJanAprJulOctJanAprJulOctJanAprJulOctJanAprJul1313141414141515151516161616171717Source:TheSteelIndexPlate:SouthernEuropeanpricesdownE13;USpricesdownUSD10Southe
7、rnEuropeanpricesweredownE13toE522(downUSD9toUSD602).PriceshavecomedownE12inthepastmonth.NorthernEuropeanpricesfellFigure2:RawMaterialpricesE8toE552(downUSD2toUSD637).USpricesdeclinedbyUSD10toUSD799USD/tIronoreFines62%Fe,CFRTianjin,ChinaShreddedscrap,US(RHS)USD/t550(downE16toE693).210
8、500190170450
