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1、SteelPriceTrackerDeutscheBankMarketsResearchEuropeIndustryDateFrance6September2017GermanySteelPriceTrackerSteelPeriodicalSteelBigincreasesinEuropeancoilpricesBastianSynagowitzWillsteelpricesstillfallorreboundinstead?ResearchAnalystSteelequitiescontinuetobevolatile,drivenbymacrowoesandco
2、mmoditypricemovements.Althoughcurrentspotconditionsremainstrong,westillforecast+41-44-227-3377costsupporttofade,andthus,Europeanpricestofall(currentspotconditionsToppickswouldimplysignificantfurtherearningsupgradesacrossthespace). OurtopArcelorMittal(MT.AS),EUR22.80Buypicks:1)ArcelorMitt
3、al,whichlooksattractivetous,basedonstrongcashThyssenKrupp(TKAG.DE),EUR25.05Buyflow(7-12%FCFyield),valuationandadditionalupsideoptionality;and2)Source:DeutscheBankThyssenKrupp,onapossiblynearingeventcatalyst(Tatamerger),recoveringearnings,andimprovingCFandsentiment.HRC:SouthernEuropeanpri
4、cesupE25andstartclosinggapwithNorthernEuropeLastweek,SouthernEuropeanpriceswereupE25toE510(upUSD36toFigure1:HRCpricesUSD608);NorthernEuropeanpriceswereupbyE10toE527(upUSD20toUSD/t1,050NorthernEuropeUSAChinaexportstoEuropeUSD629).PriceshaverisenE9inthepastthreemonths.1,000950900850800USH
5、RCpricesupUSD3;Chineseexportswerestable750700USHRCpriceswereupbyUSD3toUSD689 lastweek.ThepricegapwithEurope650600hasfallentoUSD60/t,whilethepricedifferentialwithChinarosetoUSD169/t.550500450ChineseHRCpriceswerestableatUSD520.ThespreadbetweenChineseand400350EUpriceshasincreasedtoUSD88,mor
6、ethanthetwo-yearaveragespreadof300250200USD63,withChinesepricesupE52(upbyUSD89)inthepastthreemonths.AugDecAprAugDecAprAugDecAprAugDecAprAug13131414141515151616161717Source:TheSteelIndexPlate:NorthernEuropeanpricesupE2USpriceswerestableN.EuropeanpricesincreasedE2toE597(upUSD10toUSD711).P
7、riceshaveincreasedE24inthepastmonth.S.EuropeanpriceswerestableatE552(upFigure2:RawmaterialpricesUSD8toUSD658).USpriceswerestableatUSD735(downE8toE616).USD/tIronoreFines62%Fe,CFRTianjin,ChinaShreddedscrap,US(RHS)USD/t550210500190Ironore:Fines62%FepricesupUSD2/dmt;cokingcoal:pric
