德银-英国-服装零售业(个股-primark)-primark仍然前景堪忧

德银-英国-服装零售业(个股-primark)-primark仍然前景堪忧

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时间:2018-03-10

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1、UKClothingRetailDeutscheBankMarketsResearchEuropeIndustryDateUnitedKingdom18December2017UKClothingRetailRetailRetail-NonFoodIndustryUpdatePrimark'sstillsleighingitJainaMistryUKClothingmarket-1.7%over12weeksto19NovemberResearchAnalystWetaketwokeypointsfromtheKantarWorldPaneldatareportedto

2、day:1)averagepricegrowthhassignificantlyslowed;2)Primarkgainedthemostshare,+44-20-754-71337whileM&Simprovedthemost.Theperiodreportedhas11weeksofnewdataWarwickOkinesforDebenhams,9forPrimark,7forM&Sand3forNext.InsidewealsolookatResearchAnalystthelatestM&Sswitchingspenddata.+44-20-754-58546A

3、weakmarketdrivenbywomenswearCharlieMuir-Sands,CFAThemarketdeteriorationwasdrivenentirelybywomenswear(-2%)andwasalsoResearchAnalystentirelyexplainedbyvolumes.Despiteinflation,achievedsellingpriceswereflat,+44-20-754-75749slowerthanthepricegrowthseenearlierin2017.Recenttrendsindiscountedspen

4、dmayhaveputdownwardpressureonpricegrowth,withthediscountedRichaJainmarket(+1.8%)outperformingthefullpricemarket(-3.4%)sinceOctober.ResearchAssociatePrimarkgainedthemostshare...ToppicksDebenhamslost6bpsofshareoverthe12weekperiod(vs+14bpsoverintheABFoods(ABF.L),GBP2,843.00Buypriorperiod)dr

5、ivenbyweakertrendsinwomenswearandkidswear.Withinthis,Source:DeutscheBankfullpricesales(-4.3%)underperformeddiscount(-1.9%).MeanwhilePrimarkcontinuedtobethestandoutwinner,withtotalsharegainsof+42bps,thoughthesegainsslowedfromthepriorperiod....whileM&SsawthegreatestimprovementM&Ssawthegrea

6、testyearonyearimprovement,withflatmarketshareversusadeclineof48bpslastmonth.ThisisM&S'secondsharegainonourrecords,whichgobacktoSeptember2012.Thiswasdrivenbybetterperformanceinwomenwear,whileitsfullpricemarketshareremainednegative(-10bps)butimprovedonthepriormonth(-20bps).Next'ssharegainsf

7、adedslightlyto+4bps,from+15bpsinthepriormonth,anddespitegaining20bpsoffullpriceshare,wenotethiswassignificantlyweakerthanthe+60bpslastmonth.WesetoutourpreviewsinChristmasTurkeysandCrackers,7December2017.OurclothingsectortoppickisABFoodsNexttradeson10.7x,M&Son11.0x,ABFon20.

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