汇丰银行-新加坡-银行业-低迷的三季度？谁会关注？

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1、23October2017SingaporebanksEQUITIESFIGAlacklustre3Q17?Whocares?SingaporeAnunexciting3Q17maynotdampenrecentstockpriceKarWengLoo*strength…AnalystTheHongkongandShanghaiBankingCorporationLimited,SingaporeBranch…asthemarketlooksto2018withhopefuelledby

2、positivekarwengloo@hsbc.com.sg+6566580621macrodataXiushiCai*AnalystStaytacticallypositiveonthesector;OCBC(Buy)isourtopTheHongkongandShanghaiBankingCorporationLimited,SingaporeBranchsectorpickxiushicai@hsbc.com.sg+6566580617Fuelledbyhopeagain.Despitean

3、unexciting2Q17andmorecautiousguidancefrom*Employedbyanon-USaffiliateofHSBCSecurities(USA)Inc,andisDBSduringitslastanalystbriefing,stockshavereboundedfromrecentlows,rising5-8%notregistered/qualifiedpursuanttoFINRAregulationssincemid-Septemberthanksagain

4、tohopesofimprovingrevenueprospectsandsustainedassetqualityresilience(Singaporebanks:Hopesaredeflating,9August2017).Itishardtofaultthemarket’soptimism,giventhepositivemacrodatawehaveseen(Fig9and11).Still,therearethreepointsworthconsidering:1.Itmaytaketi

5、meforcreditgrowthtopickupmeaningfully.SectorDBUloangrowthrose5%y-o-yand3%YTDinAugust2017.Inshort,thestrong6.3%q-o-qsaar3Q17GDPgrowthhasyettofilterthroughtocreditgrowth(Fig6).2.Higherinterestratesq-o-qbutnotfortheyear.3-monthSIBORandSORrose0.13bpand0.17

6、bpsinceJune,respectively.ThismayleadtohigherNIM,butitmaytakethreemonthsforassetstore-price.Moreimportantly,theaverage3-monthSIBORYTDisjust4bphigherthanthe2016average,whiletheaverage3-monthSORYTDis6bplowerthanthe2016average.Inshort,2017NIMmaynotbemuchhi

7、gherthan2016levels(Fig8).3.Creditcostmaynotimprovemuch.Thereislittleevidencetosuggestbroad-basedassetqualityweakness;however,conditionsmaynotgetbetterasNPLsarenearmulti-yearlowsdespiteslippingsince2014(Fig12).Therisktofutureearningsismorepronouncedaspr

8、ovisioningreserveshavefallengreatlysince2014(Fig13).TheadoptionofFRS9accountingstandardsin2018couldleadtomoreuncertainty.Staytacticallypositive.PreferredpickisOCBC(Buy).OCBCwillreport3Q17resultson26OctoberfollowedbyUOB(Hold)on3Novembera