麦格理-马来西亚-宏观策略-马来西亚2017年q3策略结果要点：喜忧参半

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1、MALAYSIAMalaysiaStrategy3Q17results:bysectorround-upSectorsBeatIn-lineMiss3Q17resultswrap:mixedpictureBanks/Financials250Telcos131ConclusionUtilities030Oil&Gas201Againstthebackdropofstrong3QGDPgrowth(+6.2%,thefastestpacesincePlantation202Gloves1102Q14)andfirming

2、underlyingconsumption-supportivemacroindicatorssuchConsumer111asacceleratingrealwagegrowthandfallinghouseholddebt(referto“3Q17Transportation222Construction113GDPstats:keyread-throughs”report),3QcorporatereportingforthemainlyProperty/REITs204domesticdemand-oriente

3、dmarketremainedstubbornlymixed.ThenumberofHealthcare002companiesundercoveragebeatingexpectationsroseforasecondquarterinMedia001Technology&IT110arow,albeitmarginally,to15(2Q:8),withfavouredsectorsi.e.financials,Gaming001small-midconstruction,transport/logisticsand

4、tech/exporterscontinuingtoInsurance001Total151719showthemostconvincingearningsdelivery.Keyearnings,ratingadjustmentsSource:MacquarieResearch,December2017post-3Qreportingtoflagarei)Gamuda–downgradedtonon-consensusUP(fromOP);ii)HLBK–forecast,TPlifted;reiterateOP;ii

5、i)MAHB–raisedtoMalaysia:earningsgrowthbysectorNeutral(fromUP);andiv)PetronasGas–raisedtoNeutral(fromUP).Netprofitgrowth(mktcapweightedaverage)Impact2016A2017E2018EBanks/Financials3%9%9%Consensusedgeshigher:followingstrong3QGDPprintandasustainedTelcos-16%8%5%impr

6、ovementinearningsdriverssuchasoilprice(sustainingwellabovefiscalUtilities18%0%-1%Oil&Gas2%22%-6%guidanceofUSD52/bbl)andRinggit(strengthening),albeitwithsomeoffsetrePlantation15%17%14%deceleratingsystemloangrowth(Oct:4.6%YoY,weakestYTD),consensusGloves20%22%11%Con

7、sumer1%-14%-5%2017and2018KLCIEPSgrowthforecastshaveedgedhigher,to9.1%andTransportation130%-29%0%6.6%respectively;thiscomparesto8.3%and5.7%respectivelyinSept,post-Construction9%8%15%2Qreporting.ForMacquariecoverage,recentnegativeearningsrevisionsforProperty/REITs0

8、%2%-4%Healthcare-3%-4%41%big-capstockslikeIHH,GamudaandGent(M)hasour2017one-offsadjustedMedia4%9%17%earningsgrowthmoderatingto5.3%(from6.2%post-2Q)whilst2018gr