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1、DeutscheBankMarketsResearchAsiaIndustryDateHongKongHongKongProperty19October2017PropertyPropertyIndustryUpdateJasonChing,CFAFrancoLamCoolertimesResearchAnalystResearchAnalyst(+852)22036205(+852)22036226jason.ching@db.comfranco.lam@db.comDemand/supplydynamicsexpectedtonormalizetoreflectlo
2、caldemandJeffreyGao,CFAForeigndemandhasbeenasignificantboostertotheHKpropertymarketResearchAnalystsince2010.Nevertheless,followingvariouspoliciestargetedatdiscouragingor(+852)22036256limitingforeigndemand,weexpectdemand/supplydynamicstonormalizeandjeffrey.gao@db.comtoreflectlocalfundamen
3、tals.Specifically,followingrecentmeasuresimposedbytheChinesegovernmenttorestrictChinesecompaniesinvestinginforeignStephenCheung,CFArealestate,weexpectofficecapratestoexpand.Onfactoringina25bpscapResearchAnalystrateexpansioninthenext12months(fromflatpreviously),wecutourNAV(+852)22036182es
4、timatesby0.5%-2.5%andTPby0%-2.5%.Meanwhile,withfewerforeignstephen-a.cheung@db.complayers,weanticipatemorerationalpricinginthelandmarket.Expect0.5%-2.5%downsiderisktoNAVsascapratesnormalizeFooLeungCapratesforHKofficepropertieshavehistoricallytrackedUS10-yearTreasuryResearchAssociateYield
5、withanaveragespreadof120bps.Sincehittingatroughin2016,US10-(+852)22036239yearTreasuryhasrisenby70bpsbutcaprateshavecompressedfurther,foo.leung@db.comdrivenbyaninfluxofforeigncapital.However,thisrelationshiphasbrokendownconsiderablysince2015followingtheinfluxofChinesebuyers.Thecurrentspre
6、adof45bpsisthenarrowestinthreeyears,whichisnotKeyChangessustainable,inourview.HKofficecapratesshouldtheoreticallyexpandtoCompanyTargetPriceRating3.52%ora75bpsexpansionfromthecurrentlevel.Followingtherestrictions0016.HK124.30to-announcedbytheChinesegovernmentonAugust18onforeignrealestate1
7、22.30(HKD)investmentbyChinesecompanies,weexpectthehistoricalcorrelationto1113.HK68.60to-revert,posingdownsiderisktoNAVsforlandlords.Onfactoringa25bpscap69.30(HKD)rateexpansioninthenext12months,HKlandlords’NAVwoulddeclineby0004.HK65.60to-64.60(HKD)1.5%-2.5%,higherthanthe0.
