汇丰银行-煤炭交易暴跌，印度港口增长缓慢-20170807-hsbc-indiaportsgrowthdeceleratedonasharpdeclineincoal

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1、7August2017IndiaPortsEQUITIESMARINEGrowthdeceleratedonasharpdeclineincoalIndiaMajorportsgrowthslowedto1.4%inJulyfrom4.0%y-o-yinParashJain*JuneonasharpdeclineincoalandaslowdowninPOLHeadofTransportResearch,AsiaPacificTheHongkongandShanghaiBankingCorporationLimitedparashjain

2、@hsbc.com.hkCoalremainsunderpressureonrisingdomesticsupply;Coal+85229966717India’sofftakegrew4.1%y-o-yinthefirstfourmonthsofFY18LouisPang*AssociateTheHongkongandShanghaiBankingCorporationLimitedGST-relateddisruptionsledtoaplungeinmanufacturingPMIlouis.w.h.pang@hsbc.com.hk+852

3、29149934butnodisruptionforports;lowbaseshouldsupport2QFY18*Employedbyanon-USaffiliateofHSBCSecurities(USA)Inc,andisnotregistered/qualifiedpursuanttoFINRAregulationsIndiamajorports’throughputgrowthslowedto1.4%inJulyfrom4.0%y-o-yinJune,astheimprovementincontainerwasoffsetbyasharp

4、erdeclineincoalandaslowdowninPetroleum,OilandLubricant(POL)growth.DespiteoperationaldisruptionsattheGatewayTerminalsIndiaoftheJawaharlalNehruPortTrust(JNPT)inJulyduetothe“Petya”cyber-attackandthemonsoon,majorports’containerthroughput(TEU)growthwasbetterthanexpected,at5.4%inJuly

5、vs2.6%inJune.Weattributetheimprovementtoalowbaselastyear(-1.6%inJuly2016vs10.0%inJune2016).Meanwhile,coalthroughputremainedincontractionat-25.5%inJuly,comparedwith-18.6%inJunedrivenbyasharperdeclineinthermalcoal(-30.6%inJulyvs-15.4%inJune)offsetbyaslightimprovementincokingcoal(

6、-15.5%inJulyvs-24.9%inJune).POLthroughputgrowthdeceleratedfrom17.2%inJuneto11.7%inJulyasthefavourablelowbasefades.Coalthroughputremainsunderpressuregivenrisingdomesticsupply.IntheFYtodate,majorports’coalthroughputdeclined13.2%y-o-yasaresultofa17.4%declineinthermalcoalanda4.5%de

7、clineincokingcoal.Weattributethecontinueddeclineincoalthroughputtotherisingdomesticsupply.Indeed,thecoalofftakeofthestate-ownedCoalIndia(CIL,COALIN,Buy,CMPINR249.20,coveredbyAlokDeshpande)increased4.1%y-o-yinthefirstfourmonthsofFY18.Clarksonalsoforecaststhermalcoalandcokingcoal

8、importsintoIndiatocontractby8%and6%,respectivelyinCY20