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1、Auto/TrucksDeutscheBankMarketsResearchAsiaIndustryDateChina1December2017Auto/TrucksAutomobiles&ComponentsForecastChangeSlowerdemandaheadFeiSun,CFAHDTsalespeaksthisyear;maintainingSellonWeichai-HResearchAnalystIndustrysalessurged70%YTD,drivingstrongperformanceofthestockpric
2、esinthesector.ThesharepricesofWeichai-H/Sinotrukhaverallied43%/52%YTD+852-22036130vs.22%oftheHSCEI.Wenowexpect57%salesgrowthforChinaHDTmarketVincentHa,CFAin2017,drivenbyreplacementorders,strictimplementationofoverloadingandResearchAnalystheavypollutingvehiclecontrol,andinf
3、rastructureprojects.However,thisyear+852-22036247willbethesalespeakandtheoutlookforthestocksturnsneutraltonegative.Webelievethattheindustrysaleswilldeclinemildlyin2018and2019.WemaintainYukiLuaSellratingonWeichai-HinviewofHDTsalesdeclinein2018-19andaHoldResearchAssociaterat
4、ingonSinotrukgivenourviewonitsproducttechnologyupgradeandability+852-22035925togainmarketshare.KeyChangesAstrongyearin2017,tobefollowedbytwoyearsofsalesdeclineCompanyTargetPriceRatingHDTsalesbottomedoutinFebruary2016andgrew33.1%inFY16to732,9193808.HK7.20to8.40-units.Thestr
5、ongsalesmomentumcontinuedin2017andHDTsalesgrew70.3%2338.HK6.00to7.50-in10M17to963,432units.Wehaveraisedour2017forecastto1.15munits000338.SZ5.40to6.30-(+56.9%YoY).However,wehaveobservedthatthegrowthratehasdroppedtoSource:DeutscheBank20.9%inOctober(from101.0%inSeptemberand91
6、.2%inAugust).ConsideringCompaniesfeaturedahigh2017comparisonbase,increasingmonetaryandfiscalpolicytighteningSinotruk(HongKong)Holdandenvironmentalcontrolmeasures,weexpectsalesvolumetodecline8.2%in(3808.HK),HKD8.652018and3.4%in2019.2016A2017E2018EP/E(x)17.18.910.4WeexpectSin
7、otrukandWeichaitoslightlyoutperformthemarketPrice/book(x)0.70.90.9In10M17,Sinotrukgrouprecorded76.3%YoYgrowthinHDTsales.WeexpectWeichaiPower(2338.HK),HKD8.71SellSinotruk’sHDTsalesvolumetogrow70%in2017,slightlyoutperformingthe2016A2017E2018Emarket,withthehelpofSitrakHDTstha
8、tareequippedwithMAN’sadvancedP/E(x)13.29.311.8technology.Weichairecordeda87.4%YoYincrease
