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1、PhillipSingaporeMonthly4July2017July2017:FocusisoninflationMarket:STIwasup0.5%inJune.WeremainNeutral.OurSTItargetisunchangedat3270GlobalMarketWatch(15xPEFY17e).Junewasaneventfulmonthintermsofmacroevents.BothUSTreasuryAsia-PacificLevel1M(%)YTD(%)yieldsandUSdollartr
2、adedatyearlows,whileoilpricessufferedabreakdown.ThemarketNikkei22520,0331.94.8isnavigatingunderfourmacroconsiderations:1)weakinflationdataintheUShasdraggedKOSPI2,3921.918.0downUSTreasuryyieldstoyearlows,despitetheFedraisingratesandthreateningtoCSI3003,6675.010.8un
3、winditsbalancesheet.TheFedviewsthelowinflationrateastransientandthetightHSCEI10,365(2.2)10.3labourmarketasamorereliablepredictorofhigherinflationinthefuture;2)Macron'sTaiex10,3953.512.3overwhelmingmajorityintheFrenchParliamentperhapswipedoutpoliticalrisksinHangSen
4、g25,7650.417.1Europeandevenbroughtitastepclosertothefiscaluniondream;3)softereconomicSensex30,922(0.7)16.1momentumintheUSandnervousnessoverpoliticsarepressuringtheUSdollarlower;andNifty9,521(1.0)16.34)abreakdowninoilpricesisraisingthespectreofanotherspikeincreditr
5、isksandaSET1,5750.82.1furthercollapseofcapitalspending.ItisundersuchascenariowhichwebuildourKLCI1,764(0.1)7.4strategy.LowerinflationandinterestratesmadeusoverweightyieldstocksandSTI3,2260.512.0underweightbanks.ThedeclineinUSdollarwillbebeneficialforselectedemergin
6、gJCI5,8301.610.1markets,namelyChinaandIndonesia.SofteroilpricesmaytriggerfurtherprovisioningbyPhilComp7,8430.114.7thebanks,albeitmodestlyasmostofthelumpyissueswerewrittenofflastyear.S&P/ASX2005,721(0.1)1.0Recommendation:OurkeyBUYsremainstockswithattractivesustaina
7、bleyieldsuchasUS/EuropeLevel1M(%)YTD(%)AsianPayTVandMapletreeIndustrialtrust.WehaveremovedCroesusRetailfollowingitsDJIA21,3501.68.0takeover-offer.KeppelDCREIThasalsobeentakenout,asitssharepricehasfarexceededNASDAQComp6,140(0.9)14.1ourtarget.WeincludedMapletreeIndu
8、strialforthestabilityofitsyieldswhichissourcedS&P5002,4230.58.2fromalmost90properties.WeinitiatedaTradingBUYonWheelockProperties.TheFTSE1007,313(2.8)2.4
