辉立证券-泰国公司研究-thai beverage the dominant and expansive giant-20170710-phillip securities

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1、Editor:VaughnLITel:(852)22776628Email:foreignstock@phillip.com.hkThaiBeverageThedominantandexpansivegiantSINGAPORE

2、CONSUMER

3、INITIATION10July20178%p.a.earningsgrowthfrompremiumization,growingshareinbeerandtappingtheAccumulate(Initiate)LASTCLOSEPRICESGD0.91vastCLMVma

4、rketFORECASTDIVSGD0.03Commands90%marketshareinspiritswithS$1bncash-flowgeneratedyearlyTARGETPRICESGD1.05FastergrowingF&N,OishiandSermsukbrandsbecomethebeachheadfor2020targetTOTALRETURN17.8%of50%earningsfromnon-alcoholicbeverageInitiatecoveragewith“Accumulate”rati

5、ngwithaSOTP-derivedTPofS$1.05.COMPANYDATABLOOMBERGCODETHBEVSPCompanyOverviewO/SSHARES(MN):25,110ThaiBeveragePublicCompanyLimited(“ThaiBev”)isaleadingbeverageproducerinMARKETCAP(USDmn/SGDmn):16526/22850ThailandaswellasoneofAsia’slargestbeverageproducer.Itsbusinesscon

6、sistsoffour52-WKHI/LO(SGD):1.06/0.833MAverageDailyT/O(mn):22.35segments–Spirits,Beer,Non-alcoholicBeverages(NAB),andFood.Its“Vision2020”goalistobecometheASEANregion’sleadingbeveragecompany.ItMAJORSHAREHOLDERS(%)continuestoassertitsmarketleadingpositionsinbothspirits

7、andready-to-drinkgreenteaSIRIWANACOMPANYLIMITED45.27%marketsinThailand.Meanwhile,Changbeercurrentlycommandsc.40%ofThailand’sbeerMAXTOPMANAGEMENTCORP17.23%RISENMARKENTERPRISELTD3.32%marketshare.InvestmentThesisPRICEPERFORMANCE(%)1)GainingmarketshareinThaibeermarket.T

8、haiBev’songoingpremiumizationefforts1MTH3MTH1YRhaspaidoff:Changbeergainedc.10%marketsharetoc.40%within3-months.WeCOMPANY1.7(2.8)0.3STIRETURN(0.29)2.7616.82believethatthepositivemomentumwouldcontinuetobringChangbeertobecometheleadingbeerinThailand(withatleast45%ofmar

9、ketshare)byFY20e.PRICEVS.STI2)Demandrecoveryforalcoholicbeverages:(i)Theimpactfrommourningperiodtoebb1.20in1QFY18;and(ii)Improvingconsumersentimentandbroadereconomicrecoveryin1.10Thailand.1.003)Marginsexpansionbenefitingfrom(i)Economiesofscale,betteroperatingleverag

10、e0.90onproductionfacilitysharing,andsynergiesamongthecompanieswithinitsGroup;0.80and(ii)ImpendingexcisetaxlevyinSep-17.ThaiBevhasatrackrec