辉立证券-美股-股票分析-技术分析：标普500，一切都很明了-20170904-technical analysis s＆ p 500,all clear for now-phillip securities

《辉立证券-美股-股票分析-技术分析：标普500，一切都很明了-20170904-technical analysis s＆ p 500,all clear for now-phillip securities》由会员上传分享，免费在线阅读，更多相关内容在行业资料-天天文库。

1、Editor:VaughnLITel:(852)22776628Email:foreignstock@phillip.com.hkTechnicalAnalysis:S&P500AllclearfornowEquities

2、S&P500

3、TECHNICALANALYSIS4September2017•NearingtheendofthecurrenteconomicexpansionarycycleTradableinstruments:•Extremeoptimism,complacencyandgreedareshowi

4、ngup•However,sentimentindicators,priceactionandinterestraterelatedmetricsarenotETF:flashingredyetSPDRDJIATrust-(AMEX-DIA)•GeneralequitymarketshouldcontinuetogrindhigheruntilthemajorindicatorssignalTheSPDRDowJonesIndustrialAverageETFdangertracksapriceweightedindexof

5、30largecapUSstocksWiththeUSequitymarketclimbingtonewhighs,wethoughtitwouldbeagoodtimetoreviewthestrengthofthebullmarket.Fromacyclicaleconomicpointofview,weareSPDRS&P500ETFTrust-(AMEX-SPY)nearingtheendoftheexpansionaryphasewhereitallstartedbackinJune2009.TheTheSPDRS

6、&P500ETFtracksamarketcapcurrenteconomicexpansionisthethirdlongestinhistoryat98months,whichmeansaweightedindexofUSlargeandmidcaprecessionarycycleisabouttotakeoveroncethecurrentexpansionarycycleends.EachstocksselectedbytheS&PCommitteeexpansionarycycleismetwithsomefor

7、mofcrisisthatleadstoarecessionwiththetwoPowersharesQQQNasdaq100-mostrecentcrisisresultingina50%wipeintheS&P500.Expansionarycyclesaredefined(Nasdaq:QQQ)aspositiveQoQGDPgrowthwhilecontractionarycyclesaredefinedasnegativeQoQGDPThePowersharesQQQtracksamodifiedgrowth.Th

8、eaverageexpansionarycycleisabout60months,andthelongesteconomicmarketcapweightedindexof100NASDAQexpansionwas119monthsduringthe1990decadewhilethesecondlongesteconomiclistedstocks.expansionlastedfor107monthsduringthe1960decade.Figure1.Economiccycle–Currenteconomicexpa

9、nsionisthethirdlongestinhistoryEconomicExpansionDurationofEconomicExpansionEconomicContractionDurationofrecession1933-193751month1937-193812month1938-194581month1945-19457month1945-194838month1948-194910month1949-195346month1953-19549month1954-195740month1957-19587

10、month1958-196025month1960-19619month1960-1970107month1970-197010month1970-197337month1973-197515month1975-198058month1980-19806month1980-198112mo