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1、ChinaHealthcareDeutscheBankMarketsResearchAsiaIndustryDateJapan7November2017NorthAmericaChinaHealthcareHealthCareForecastChangeHealthCareMonthlydatatracker:October2017JackHu,PhDMonthlydatatracker:October2017ResearchAnalystRecentdatasuggestthat:1)drugconsumptiongrew14.6%YoY
2、inSeptembervs.12.1%inYTD8m17;2)inpatientandoutpatienttrafficincreased5.5%and1.9%,+852-22036208respectively,in1H17;3)governmentspendingonhealthcaregrew16%YoYinMeganXuYTD9m2017vs.10%in2016;4)vitaminCpricesremainedhigh;5)6-APApricesResearchAssociatewereflatwhile7-ACApricesincrea
3、sed8%MoMinOctober;6)TCMrawmaterial+852-22035928pricesweremixed;and7)cornpricesincreasedtoRMB1,720/toninOctober.KeyChangesGovernmentspending,drugconsumption,patienttrafficandinsuranceCompanyTargetPriceRatingGrowthingovernmentspendingonhealthcarerose10%YoYinSeptember2196.HK34.
4、40to36.80-2017toRMB152bn,whileYTD8m17growthreached17%vs.10%YoYin2016.1093.HK14.00to15.90-Meanwhile,growthindrugconsumptionacceleratedto14.6%YoYinSeptember3933.HK5.90to6.30-2017;YTD8m17growthwas12.1%vs.12.0%and14.2%YoYin2016and600196.SS27.50to31.50-2015,respectively.Inpatie
5、nttrafficcontinuedtooutpaceoutpatientflow,withthe600276.SS69.00to78.10-formerup5.5%YoYandthelatterrising1.9%in1H17.InAugust,inflowand1530.HK15.10to17.00-outflowofurbanbasicmedicalinsuranceclimbed17%and30%YoYrespectively.Source:DeutscheSecuritiesInc.Forcommercialinsurance,theinfl
6、owofhealthcareinsurancedeclined13%YoYinToppicksAugust2017,whiletheoutflowofhealthcareinsurancecontinuedtogrowat25%SinoBiopharmaceuticalBuyYoY.However,onaYTDbasis,inflowgrew3%vs.26%foroutflowinYTD8m17.(1177.HK),HKD10.50UniversalMedical(2666.HK),HKD7.84BuyVitaminCpricesremained
7、high;6-APApriceunchangedwhile7-ACApriceHengruiMedicineBuywentup(600276.SS),CNY75.84DomesticvitaminCpricesremainedhighwithanASPofRMB70/kginOctoberSource:DeutscheSecuritiesInc.2017,whileimportedvitaminCpriceswereup4%MoMtoUSD6.6/kginSeptember.Thepriceof6-APAwasstableataroundR
8、MB210/kginOctober2017.TheASPof7-ACAwasatRMB390/kg,up8%MoM.Weremindinvestorsthatmainmanufa
