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1、ChinaHealthcareDeutscheBankMarketsResearchAsiaIndustryDateChina19December2017ChinaHealthcareHealthCarePharmaceuticals/ForecastChangeBiotechnologyModelrevisionforplasmanamesJackHu,Ph.D.ReimbursementcontrolmayaddrisktovolumegrowthResearchAnalystAsweapproachyearend,mor
2、enewsflowsemergedonreimbursementbudgetcontrolwhichislargelyinlinewithourpreviousexpectation.Thatbeingsaid,we+852-22036208areslightlysurprisedthatIVIGproducts,inadditiontoalbumin,havebeenplacedMeganXuunderMDL(monitoreddruglist).WebelievePDTindustrycouldbeatslightlyRes
3、earchAssociatelargerexposurevs.exclusivedrugsonvolumegrowth.Wereduceourestimates+852-22035928forCBPOandHualanaccordingly.KeyChangesModelrevisionforCBPOCompanyTargetPriceRatingWereviseddownourestimatesforCBPOfrom4Q17to2020.Wemodel7%/7%CBPO.OQ130.00to-growthforrevenue
4、/coreprofitin4Q17inRMBterms,representingchangeof116.00-2%/-1%respectivelyvs.previousestimates.For2018,weadjustrevenue/core002007.SZ26.00to24.70-profitgrowthto14%/15%,representingvarianceof-1%/-1%frompriorestimates.Source:DeutscheBankTherevisionwasmainlydrivenbylowerin
5、galbuminandIVIGsales,whichweToppicksprojecttogrowatCAGRof4%/4%,respectively,from2018to2020.ChinaBiologicProductsBuy(CBPO.OQ),USD76.08Source:DeutscheBankModelrevisionforHualanWereviseddownourestimatesforHualanfrom4Q17to2020.WemodelCompaniesfeatured13%/-2%growthforrev
6、enue/coreprofitin4Q17,representingchangeofChinaBiologicProductsBuy(CBPO.OQ),USD76.08-3%/-1%respectivelyfrompreviousforecast.For2018,weadjustrevenue/core2016A2017E2018Eprofitgrowthto13%/14%,representingvarianceof-2/-5%frompriorestimates.P/E(x)25.814.813.7Therevisionwas
7、drivenbyloweringalbuminandIVIGsales,whichweprojecttoEV/EBITDA(x)19.212.010.3growatCAGRof7%/11%,respectively,from2018to2020.Price/book(x)6.253.623.05HualanBiologicalHoldValuationandrisksEngineeriWelowerourPTforCBPOtoUSD116fromUSD130,basedon21x2018Eforward(002007.SZ),
8、CNY28.28EPS.Webelievethemultipleisjustified,asthecompany’sglobalpeersaretrading2016A2017E2018Eat27x,with14%EPSgrowthin2019Evs.12%forCBPOinR
