汇丰银行-美股-宏观经济-汇丰领先指标：美国制造驱动力

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1、20February2018HSBCLeadingIndicatorsMULTIASSETGLOBALMomentummadeinAmericaTheHLI-Momentumincreasedto55.0from51.7lastmonth…DanielFennMulti-AssetQuantitativeStrategist…andthebroaderHLI-Cyclealsomadesmallgains…HSBCBankplcdan.fenn@hsbcib.com+442079913025…drivenbythe

2、IndustrialsandAmericassub-indicatorsMarkMcDonaldHeadofFXQuantitativeStrategyHSBCBankplcTheHLI-Momentumincreasedthismonth,risingto55.0from51.7inJanuary.Themark.mcdonald@hsbcib.com+442079915966improvementmeansthatmomentumhasnowbeenabovethe50expansion/contractionlineforf

3、ourconsecutivemonths.Thebroader-basedHLI-Cyclealsoincreasedslightly,butitisn’tshowinganycleartrendandhasbeenmovingmore-or-lesssidewaysforthepastfewmonths.Thislackofdirectionreflectsadivergenceintheunderlyingindicators.Attheregionallevel,themainsourceofstrengthremainst

4、heAmericas(64%oftheconstituentsareUSindicators)whiletheEuropeanandAsia-Pacificindicatorsarebothshowingsignsofweakness.Fromasectorperspective,theIndustrialssub-indicatorcontinuedtomovehigherwhiletheConsumerindicatorfell.HSBCLeadingIndicators104100%10275%10050%9825%9694

5、0%199519971999200120032005200720092011201320152017HLI-Cycle(LHS)HLI-Momentum(RHS)Source:HSBC,ThomsonReutersDatastreamHSBCLeadingIndicator–Cycle:TheHLI-Cisabroad-basedindicatorcoveringdifferenteconomicsectorsandregionsthatprovidesanearlysignalofturningpointsintheglobal

6、economiccycle.HSBCLeadingIndicator–Momentum:TheHLI-MismadeupofthetimeliestindicatorsintheHLI-CandisdesignedtogiveanearlyreadontheHLI-Cbysignallingifthepaceofexpansionorcontractionisincreasingordecreasing.MiFIDII–ResearchBloombergtickers:HSAALICIndexandHSAALIMIndexIsyo

7、uraccessagreed?CONTACTustodayDisclaimer&DisclosuresIssuerofreport:HSBCBankplcThisreportmustbereadwiththedisclosuresandtheanalystcertificationsinViewHSBCGlobalResearchat:theDisclosureappendix,andwiththeDisclaimer,whichformspartofit.https://www.research.hsbc.comMULTIASS

8、ET●GLOBAL20February2018OverviewThebusinesscycleremainsthekeydriverofmarketssounderstandingthedataremainscritical.Giventh