德意志银行-china equity strategy：investing in a`shares part4，msci inclusion to extend blue~chip strength-20170621-deutschebank

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1、DeutscheBankMarketsResearchAsiaStrategyDateChinaChinaEquity21June2017StrategyStrategyUpdateYuliangChang,CFAJosephHuoInvestinginA-sharesPart4:MSCIStrategistStrategist(+852)22036195(+852)22036251inclusiontoextendblue-chipstrengthyuliang.chang@db.comjoseph.huo@db.co

2、mMSCIannouncedtoinclude222A-sharelarge-capsintwostagesbyMayandDetailsofMSCI'sA-shareinclusionAugust2018;witha5%inclusionfactortheserepresent2.5%ofMSCIChinaMSCIA-shareinclusionand0.7%oftheMSCIEMindex(Figure1).MSCI’sResearchHeadLieblichInitialscope:NBConnecteligibl

3、eestimatedtheinitialinclusionmayinviteUS$17-18bnofinflowtoA-shares,large-caps(ex.longer-termsuspended)andastheChinesemarketopensfurther,therecouldbec.450large-/mid-capNo.ofA-shareadditions222A-sharesincludedinthefuture,implyingtotalinflowsofUS$340bn.A-shrwgtinMSC

4、IChina(5%incl.)2.50%AftertheRMBinclusionintoIMFSDRinOct-16andHKEx’sannouncementonA-shrwgtinMSCIEM(5%incl.)0.73%thebondconnectinMay-17,MSCI’sA-shareinclusionsignifiesChina’sfurtherintegrationintotheglobalfinancialsystem.WeseeitasaverypositiveImplementationPhaseI(2

5、.5%)May-18developmentforChineseequitiesgiventhesignificantlong-termimplications.ImplementationPhaseII(5%)Aug-18Wemaintainourpositiveviewandreiterateourpreferenceonvalueandblue-chips,especiallyFinancials;wealsohighlightthreestockscreens.Estimatedinitialinflow(USD)

6、c.$18bn1)LimitedNTimpactbutsignificantLTimplications:The5%inclusionSource:MSCI,DeutscheBankStrategyResearchfactorsuggestslimitednear-terminflowstoA-shares(US$18bnis1.3xofA-sharevaluestockshavebeenoutperformingtheaggregatedailyturnover),whileweseeitasamajormilest

7、onein200CumulativeA-sharesmall-/mid-capsChina’sfinancialmarketopening-upandlookforsignificantlong-termLarge-capsrelativereturnimplicationsintermsofhigherinstitutionalparticipation,bettermarketvalueovergrowth(ppt)150efficiency,morereasonablevelocityandvolatility,a

8、ndstrongerfundraising.1002)Potentiallyeasierfollow-oninclusion:Withfurtherreformsinfinancialliberalizationandmarketaccessibility,wethinkitcouldberelatively50e