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1、DeutscheBankMarketsResearchAsiaStrategyDateChinaChinaEquity13June2017StrategySpecialReportYuliangChang,CFAJosephHuoInvestinginA-sharesPart3:StrategistStrategist(+852)22036195(+852)22036251Unearthingthe"A-shareWhale"yuliang.chang@db.comjoseph.huo@db.comFollowingourearlierdiscussionsonA
2、-shareinvestment(seePart1:ValueTheNThasreducedtheirA-sharepositionsdiscoveryhasbeenworkingwell,21Apr,andPart2:1Qresults:recovery,2,800RmbbnTotalmarketcapofNationalTeamholdingsrebuilding&resurgence,5May),wenowlookintoamajorplayerinthe8.1%%oftotalA-sharelistedmktcapmarket,the“NationalTe
3、am”,andaddressfourFAQsinthethirdpart.We2,400%oftotalA-sharefreefloatmktcapestimatethatthe“NationalTeam”wouldhaveheldRmb1.1trworthofA-2,000sharesby1Q17,or5.4%ofthefree-floatcap,anotabledeclinefrom8.1%in6.1%6.3%5.9%3Q15;andthattheirholdingsfocusedonfinancials&industrials.Contraryto1,600
4、5.7%1,3535.3%5.4%thepopularview,wefindthattheytendtoactasamarketstabilizer(rather1,2911,2001,1431,1071,1161,0811,124thananamplifier)bysellingwinnersandbuyinglaggards.Wedon’tthinktheyhavebeenthekeyreasonbehindtherecentblue-chiprally,astheyhavebeen4.0%800offloadingpositions;rather,webel
5、ievetheunderlyingdrivershavebeen400strongercorporatefundamentalsandincreasinginstitutionalparticipation.3.1%3.2%3.0%3.0%2.7%2.7%0Q1:Whatisthe“NationalTeam”?(pages2~3)3Q154Q151Q162Q163Q164Q161Q17The“NationalTeam”referstoagroupofinstitutionssetupbytheChineseSource:Wind,DeutscheBankStrat
6、egyResearchgovernmentduringtheA-sharemarketroutin2H15;the21knownentitiesincludetheCSF,CentralHuijin,SAFE,andseveralmutualfunds.WeestimateTheNT'sexposuretobanksstayslargelystablethattheyheldstockinroughly1,400A-sharecompaniesworthRmb1.4tr,or450RmbbnNationalTeam'sholdingsonbanks8.1%ofth
7、efree-floatmarketcapin3Q15,whicheasedtoRmb1.1tr,or5.4%ofAs%ofNationalTeam'stotalholdings400As%ofA-sharebanks'free-floatmarketcapthemarketin1Q17,whentheyoffloadedpositionsamidmarketnormalization.35025%24%24%30023%24%Q2:WhatA-sharepositionsdotheyhold?(pages4~6)266256252251248249Asof1Q17
8、,theb
