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1、DeutscheBankMarketsResearchAsiaIndustryDateChinaChinaSolar31January2018UtilitiesUtilitiesIndustryUpdateMichaelTong,CFALukaZhuCostleadershipiskey;BuyGCL-PolyResearchAnalystResearchAnalyst(+852)22036167(+852)22036173michael.tong@db.comluka.zhu@db.comAmarketforselectiveplayers;BuyGCL-PolyTo
2、ppicksRapidcapacityexpansiondespitestabledemandwillcreatepricepressuresGCL-Poly(3800.HK),HKD1.35Buyahead,whichistobeexpectedforasubsidizedindustryinwhichpriceSource:DeutscheBankreductionisthekeytolong-termsuccess.Low-cost,high-efficiencyproducersshouldconsolidatetheirleadershipandGCL-Pol
3、yiswellplacedtoachievethis.CompaniesFeaturedAlmostfullyconvertedtodiamondwirecuttingandwithcheaperin-housepolyGCL-Poly(3800.HK),HKD1.35Buysupply,ithasa>15%costadvantageoverpeers,drivinga13%earnings2016A2017E2018ECAGR.Tradingon0.8xPBandaPEofjust7x,thesharesareatasubstantialP/E(x)5.68.77.5
4、discounttoitsclosestpeer,Longi(4.6xPBand13xPE).WeraiseourforecastsEV/EBITDA(x)5.86.75.5by14-25%andourTPtoHK$1.70.Buy.Price/book(x)0.70.90.8Demand:stableandresilientafterastrongspikein2017Source:DeutscheBankGlobalsolarinstallationjumped+36%to105GWin2017andweexpectsolarSOTP-basedtargetpric
5、eofHK$1.7(updemandtostayresilientandgrowamild2%to107GWin2018.WestayfromHK$1.3);riskspositiveonChina’ssolarcapacityoutlookandexpect50GWinstallationinOurnewTPcomprisesHK$1.1for2018(onlyamildretreatyoy),supportedbyrisingdistributedPV,povertysolarmaterial(target18EPBof1.1xalleviationprojects
6、,andrushinstallationaheadofatariffcutin2019.Throughvs.13%FY18EROE)andHK$0.5forto2020,weforecastaglobaldemandCAGRof9%,drivenbygrowthinIndiadownstreamsolarbusiness(basedonandotheremergingmarkets,aswellasarecoveryintheUS/EU.Demandalso451.HK’scurrentmarketvalue).Keylookshealthyinthelongerter
7、mafterreachinggridparityinmorecountries.downsiderisks:lowersolardemand,sharper-than-expectedwaferpriceSupply:morenewcapacityadditionleadstoconsolidationopportunitiesdecline,smaller-than-expectedcostWeforecastc.20%waferoversupplythisyearduetoacceleratedcapacityreduction,ma
