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1、DeutscheBankMarketsResearchAsiaIndustryDateChinaChinaGasUtilities30January2018UtilitiesUtilitiesForecastChangeHanyuZhangMichaelTong,CFAThreepolicytrendstoexpectin2018;ResearchAnalystResearchAnalyst(+852)22036207(+852)22036167FY17earningspreviewhanyu.zhang@db.commichael.
2、tong@db.comWeseeanotherpolicy-richyearaheadKeyChangesWeexpectgascompaniestorecord8-29%netprofitgrowthin2017withCompanyTargetPriceRatingstrongvolumegrowthagainpartiallyoffsetbyweakermargins.Inthenew0135.HK8.70to9.50(HKD)-year,weforeseethreepolicytrends:weexpectcentralgov
3、ernmenttopushfor0384.HK23.80to-storageinvestment;toencouragemoresupervisionofconnectionfees;andto23.50(HKD)remainsupportiveofcoaltogas,althoughlocalgovtsmaybecomelesspushy,0392.HK53.80to-especiallyinruralareas.Atcurrentprices,weseeattractiverisk-rewardfor55.60(HKD)ENN.I
4、fseekingdefensivenesstoconnectionrisks,BEHL(zeroexposure)and1193.HK35.40to-Kunlun(limitedexposure)arealsogoodcandidates.30.70(HKD)2688.HK65.50to-Weexpectastrongerpushbycentralgovernmentinstorageinvestment69.00(HKD)Duetoseverewintergasshortages,weexpectcentralgovernmentt
5、oissueSource:DeutscheBankpoliciestodriveinvestmentinstoragefacilities,byassigningsomespecificstoragetargetsforupstreamplayers,LNGterminals,andgasdistributors.WeToppicksthinktheimpactongasdistributorsshouldbepositiveinthemid/longterm,asENNEnergy(2688.HK),HKD61.60Buyitsho
6、uldeasewintergasshortagesandsmoothoutsourcegaspriceKunlunEnergy(0135.HK),HKD8.10Buyfluctuations.StoragefacilitieswithincitygasprojectsmayalsobetreatedasBeijingEnterprises(0392.HK),HKD49.15Buyallowedassetstoearna7%ROA.Intheshortterm,however,gasdistributorsSource:Deutsche
7、Bankmayhavetodeploymorecapexonstoragefacilities,whichcouldimpactcashflowsiftherequirementsaremandatoryandstringent.WeexpectmoresupervisionofconnectionbusinessRecentpolicytrendsatthelocalgovernmentlevelpointtostrongersupervisionofconnectionfees.WethinktheNDRCmayalsolikel
8、yissuearegulatorypolicyonconnectionbusinessthisyear.Webelievethereislimitedchanceoftheconnectionfeebeingcancel
