德意志银行-新兴市场企业信贷-ceemea rv monitor-20170725-deutsche bank-

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1、DeutscheBankMarketsResearchEmergingMarketsCorporateCreditDateFinancials25July2017HYMultiSectorHimanshuPorwalResearchAnalystIGMultiSector(+44)20754-74234himanshu.porwal@db.comCEEMEARVmonitorThefortnightlypriceactioninEM/CEEMEAcorporatecredituniversefaredsomewhatbetteras4

2、thsuccessiveUSCPImissrelativetoexpectationsimpliedpotentialFeddovishness.Thisresultedin10bpsoftighteninginUSTssince14thJuly(15bpssince7thJuly).EMandCEEMEAcorporateyieldsalsorespondedsimilarlyandtightenedby8bpsand9bpsrespectivelyduringthesameperiod(18bpsand22bpsoftighten

3、ingsince7thJuly).KeyobservationsfromfortnightlypriceactionFigure1:Out/UnderperformersOnspreadbasis,CEEMEAcorporatesoutperformed(6bpstightening)vs.Weightedavg.sectorOutperformers:bondswithUnderperformers:bondswithoverallEM,LatAmandAsianpeers(seefigure2).SectorSpreadChan

4、ge(bps)highestSpreadtigheninghighestSpreadwideningUtilities5ESKOM6.75'23(-12)ISRELE6.875'23(16)Ratingwise,CEEMEAHYreversedtheunderperformanceoffortnightTMT-3VIP7.250'23(-42)MOBTEL8.625'20(40)ending7thJulyandfaredwell(-10bps)comparedtoIG(+1bp).RealEstate&Construction-3E

5、RESQD4.375'21(-70)DARALA6.5'19(45)Oil&Gas-5KZOKZ7'20(-37)DOLNRG5.5'21(41)Transportation2THYAO4.2'27(-49)SAFTRA4'22(20)Countrywise,QatariandTurkishcreditswerethebiggestoutperformersMetals&Mining0GFISJ4.875'20(-20)ANGSJ5.375'20(16)Food&Consumer-16MHPSA8.25'20(-34)KAZNMH4

6、.625'23(11)witnessingspreadtighteningof25and21bpsrespectively(seefigure3).Banks(Sr)-21OSCHAD'23(-106)AKBARS'22(16)RecallthatwehighlightedourBuyrecommendationonselectTurkishbankBanks(Sub)-21FBNNL'20C18(-142)PROMBK'19(60)bondsinourpreviousRVmonitordated10thJuly.Source:Deu

7、tscheBank,BloombergFinanceLP.Sectorwise,Bankbondswerebestperformer(-21bpstightening)ledbyUkrainianandQataribanks.Utilitiesunderperformed,withtheexceptionofEskom,withaveragespreadwideningby5bps.Creditinfocus:Eskomwasthestarperformerseeingtighteningofasmuchas40bpsinthel

8、astthreetradingsessiononthebackofbetterthanexpectedearnings.ISRELEsufferedowingtoemployeestrikeresultinginsusp