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《德意志银行-新兴市场-信贷-八月新兴市场债务：技术监测-20170905-em debt,technicals monitor,august 2017-deutsche bank》由会员上传分享，免费在线阅读，更多相关内容在行业资料-天天文库。
1、DeutscheBankMarketsResearchEmergingMarketsCreditDateSovereigns5September2017JayantGuptaHongtaoJiangStrategistStrategistEMDebt:TechnicalsMonitor(+1)904271-3885(+1)212250-2524jayanth.gupta@db.comhongtao.jiang@db.comAugust2017Summary:TechnicalconditionsfortheEMsove
2、reigncreditmarketremainspositiveasInflowscomingbacktoEMinflowshavecomebacktoEMwithonlyabriefinterruption,albeittherecentEMdebtfundflows(%AUM)pacelooksslowerthanearlierintheyear,andbettersupply/demanddynamics2.0fortherestoftheyear.EMsovereignsoldUSD3.5bnduringthe
3、month,bringingYTDissuancetoUSD114bnabout80%ofour2017projection1.0(USD142bn).Thisrepresentsalmostflatnetsupplies(USD8bn),giventhat0.0thereisatotalrepaymentofUSD20bn(principal+interest)fortherestoftheyear.-1.0InflowscomingbacktoEMamidstgeopoliticalconcernsEMweekly
4、flows-2.0AfterwitnessingoutflowsforthefirsttimeinearlyJulythisyear,inflowsareHardccy4wkMALocalccy4wkMAcomingbacktoEMhardcurrencyfunds.Though,thepaceofflowsremains-3.0inconsistentfacingtemporaryjittersduetogeopoliticaltensionbetweenUSApr-15Oct-15Apr-16Oct-16Apr-1
5、7andNorth-Korea.Overall,EMhardcurrencyfundstookinexcessofUSD3bnSource:EPFR,DeutscheBank(1.7%AUM)inAugust,whilelocalandblendedcurrencyfundsabsorbedUSD1.1bn(1%AUM)andUSD0.8bn(1.4%AUM),respectively.Year-to-date,hardcurrencyfundsaggregatedaboutUSD30bn(18%AUM),incomp
6、arisontoUSD20bnrepaymentsfortherestofUSD16bn(15%AUM)forlocalcurrencyfunds,andUSD5bn(10%AUM)for2017blendedcurrencyfunds.Totalcashreturnedin2017=USD93.0bnWithinhardcurrencyfunds,thebulkofflowsindollaramountwenttoGEM16USDEUROtherfocusedfunds,addingUSD2.6bn(1.5%AUM)
7、,whilethepaceofflowswas14betterinAsiafocusedfundsattractingUSD0.5bn(3%AUM).Similarly,12comparingflowsinsovereignvs.corporatefunds,theflowsincorporate10focusedfundswerestrongeraddinganotherUSD1bn(2.7%AUM),as8comparedtoUSD0.3bn(0.4%AUM)inflowsinsovereignfocusedfun
8、ds.6OutsideEM,USHighYieldfundsfacedredemptionofaround-1%AUM,while4USIGCorpfundsadded2%AUMinAugust.2Supplytopickup0JanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecIssuanceactivity
