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1、DeutscheBankMarketsResearchEmergingMarketsCreditDateSovereigns7December2017JayantGuptaHongtaoJiangStrategistStrategistEMDebt:TechnicalsMonitor(+1)904271-3885(+1)212250-2524jayanth.gupta@db.comhongtao.jiang@db.comOutlookfor2018SummaryTechnicalconditionsremainsupportiveforEMcreditma
2、rketsanchoredbyNetsupplyin‘18tobelowerthan‘17continuousinflowsanddemandforEMyields,despiteagainhighvolumesofEMsovereignissuance(USDbn)180suppliesexpectedinearly2018.WeforecastUSD58bnnetissuancesbyEMGrossissuancesovereignissuersin2018(gross:USD145bn,repaymentsUSD87bn),Repayments(Pr
3、incipal+Interest)significantlylowerthan2016levels(USD97bn).WithUSrateslikelyonthe130NetIssuancerise,weexpectissuancestobefront-loaded(likelyconcentratedduringJan-Apr).Investor’spositioninghasreducedtoneutralinNovember,with80fundspreservingtheirprofitsbeforeyear-end.This-inconjunct
4、ionwithhighrepaymentinJanuary-bodeswellforthetechnicalconditionsattheonsetof302018.NetsupplywillreducetoUSD58bnin2018fromrecordUSD97bnin2017-20WeforecastgrossissuanceofUSD145bnbyEMsovereignissuersin2018,but989999000010200030400050600070800910001112001314015016017180112202222222022
5、222220222muchreducedfromtherecordUSD180bnin2017(YTD).WithtotalrepaymentsofUSD87bnin2018,thenetsupplyissettodecreasefromSource:DeutscheBank,BloombergUSD97bnin2017toUSD58bnin2018.Withtheexpectedtighteningandeventualrecoveryoftermpremium,weexpectsovereignissuancestobefront-loaded(lik
6、elyconcentratedinJan-Apr).Historically,around45%of2018issuanceslikelytobefront-issuanceshavecometotheprimarymarketduringJan-Apr(secondchartonloadedagainright),while20%inMay-Augand35%inSep-Dec.In2018,theissuance2017Last5yearAvgpatternmaybefurtherskewedtowardsthefirsthalfoftheyearth
7、ankstothe50%USratesscenarios.40%InNovember,Argentina,Croatia,NigeriaandPakistan,amongothersissuedintotalaboutUSD12bnofexternaldebt.Recently,inthefirstweekofDecember,30%IndonesiasoldUSD4bnbondsinthreetranches.OverallYTD,EMEAhasbeen20%thehighestissuerofsovereigndebtwithUSD118bn(66%)
8、,followedbyLatAm10%USD41bn(23%),a
