德银-新兴市场-金融业-新兴市场rv监测：稳步迈向2018

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1、DeutscheBankMarketsResearchEmergingMarketsCorporateCreditDateFinancials5February2018HYMultiSectorHimanshuPorwalResearchAnalystIGMultiSector(+44)2075474234himanshu.porwal@db.comCEEMEARVmonitor-Solidstartto2018CEEMEAcorporatecreditstartedtheyearonasolidfootingwithspreadtighteningof29bpsinJanuary.Thi

2、sapparentlywasthehighestmonthlytighteningsinceAugust2016.Nevertheless,theaverageaggregateyieldsonCEEMEAcorporatesremainedflatinJanuaryasUST10Ymovedfrom2.4%attheendof2017to2.7%byJan-2018(upat2.83%asoftoday).StayingonwithUST,wealsohighlightthatourratesStrategisthaverecentlyreviseduptheiryear-endUST1

3、0Yforecastto3.25%followingtheincreaseintheirterminalrateassumptiontoreflecteasierfinancialconditionsandasupportiveFigure1:CEEMEACorporates-policymix.Goingahead,weexpecthigherUSTyieldstoweighonEMcreditingeneral;however,wemaintainourcoreconstructiveviewforCEEMEAMonthlyPerformancecorporatesingeneralu

4、nderpinnedbytheirstrongfundamentals–solidmacro201415growth,highercommodityprices,strongcorporatecreditmetrics,positive105533futureearningsoutlook,betterratingsoutlookandprevalentlowdefaultrates50environment.-5-2-10-5-5-4KeyobservationsofmonthlypriceactioninJanuary-15-13angeinspread,bpsRegionwise,

5、CEEMEAoutperformedoverallEMcorporatesandAsia-20Ch-22-25-20corporates,whichsawspreadmovementof-25bpsand-11bps-30-29respectivelywhileLatAmcreditspreadstightenedthemost(36bps).-35Ratingwise,CEEMEAHYfaredbetter(32bpstightening)comparedtoHGnames,whichtightened29bpsmonthonmonthSource:DeutscheBank,Marki

6、t,asof31-Jan-2018AllmajorcountriesinCEEMEAwitnessedmeaningfulspreadtighteninginJanuary,withSouthAfricaleadingthepack(-40bps),thankstopositiveFigure2:Out/Underperformerspoliticaldevelopments.GCCandTurkishcreditsalsotightenedmorethanWeightedavg.sectorOutperformers:bondswithUnderperformers:bondswith

7、leastSector30bps.Meanwhile,Moody’supgradedoutlookonseveralRussianSpreadChange(bps)highestSpreadtigheningSpreadtightening/highestwideningcompaniestopositivefromstable,whichhelpedRussiancreditsUtilities-36ESKOM5.75