巴黎银行-新兴市场-宏观经济-哥伦比亚：新的增长弥足珍贵-20171030-bnp_paribas-colombia：new_growth_drivers_a_precious_commodity

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1、Colombia:NewgrowthdriversapreciouscommodityAuthor:Colombia’sadjustmentprocesshasbeensmootherthaninothercommodity-drivencountries.FlorenciaVazquezEconomistAchievingsustainable,highergrowthrateswillrelymoreonreformsthanmonetaryorfiscalBNPParibasSucursalBuenosAiresstimulus

2、though,inourviewLuizEduardoPeixotoAheadofthe2018elections,tacklingproductivityhurdlesshouldbeontheagenda.EconomistBancoBNPParibasBrasilSARecentgrowthdynamicsseemtohavebecomeinextricablyinterlinkedwiththoseabroad.Whenwesimulatetheweightofexternaldriversinthecountry’sperfo

3、rmance,includingoilprices,perceptionofriskstowardsemergingmarkets,demandforsupplies,andglobalGDPgrowth,wefindastrongcorrelationwiththecountry’sowndomesticperformanceofaroundthreequartersoftotalGDPperformancesince2000(seeChart1).ColombiabenefitsfromThegoodnewshereisthatthe

4、worldseemstobesupportive,withgrowthforecastsbeingglobaleconomicgrowth…revisedupacrosstheboard,theprospectofverygradualmonetarynormalisation,andlowriskaversion.Oilprices,whilewellbelowtheUSD80-100/bblrange,arenotexpectedbyouroilteamtoplungefromcurrentlevels.Besides,asolidp

5、olicyframeworkhasallowedthecountrytoadjustbetterthanmostothercommodity-drivenpeers,inourview.Thebadnewsthoughisthatthisaloneisunlikelytoreturndomesticgrowthtothegrowthprintsseenduringthe2000s.Infact,itsrelianceontheglobaleconomymakesColombia’seconomyparticularlysusceptibl

6、etoexternalshocks,whicharemagnifiedbyahighdependencyonexternalborrowing.Oilpricescouldalsoloseexistingsupportifglobalproductionrisesenough,demandfalls–orOilsectorfacingfallingoutput,fewernewfindsboth.Moreover,domesticproductionhasbeenfalling,withfewnewdiscoveriesbeingmade

7、inrecentyears,andnewinvestmentscouldbehinderedbyuncertaintyarisingfromlocalreferendums.Thisiscauseforconcern,especiallyasColombiaisestimatedtohaveonlyaround5yearsleftofprovencrudereserves,accordingtotheMinisterofMinesandEnergy.CurrentaccountfacingaInaddition,asweexploredi

8、nColombia’srates:Tocutornottocut?,whiledomestic~3.5%shortfallconsumptionhasdeceleratedmarkedlyre